College Basketball 1/14/09: Dave Picks Penn State-Michigan State and Illinois-Michigan
# 10 Michigan State (13-2,3-0) at Penn St. (13-4, 2-2)
Line: Michigan St. -6
Michigan St. comes off a home victory against Kansas and is 3-0 in conference. Michigan State leads the conference in scoring at 77.6% a game. Penn St. is coming off a 20 point loss on the road against Minnesota.
ATS-
Michigan State is 7-5 and 3-0 on the road ATS
Penn State is 7-3 and 4-1 at home ATS
Michigan State is 9-1 ATS against Penn St. in their last 10 meetings.
The strength of the Penn State offense is their 3 point shooting and the speed of their guard play. While shooting 39.2% from three point land this year is great, the 20 point loss to Minnesota shows what happens when that source of scoring dries up. A 5 point home losses to Rhode Island and 6 points to Temple show a template for a better Michigan State team to come in and cover. Betting wisdom would be all over a 6 point home dog that is 13-4 straight up as well as 4-1 at home ATS. I’m just not able to do it.
Dave’s Pick-Michigan State -6
#25 Michigan (13-3, 3-1) at Illinois (14-2, 2-1)
Line: Illinois -6
Michigan is winners of three in a row including a 74-64 home victory against Illinois. Overall, Michigan has been winning with good defensive play, but the 59% shooting in the first half was one key to the victory over the Illini in their first meeting.
Illinois stands at 8-1 at home having just crushed Indiana by 21. Despite the hot shooting of Michigan, the inability to get to the line hurt Illinois in their last meeting. Illinois shot 2 for 3 from the line and Michigan was 11 for 14.
ATS-
Michigan is 7-3-1 and 1-2-1 on the road ATS
Illinois is 8-5 an 5-4 at home ATS
Illinois is 6-4 head to head ATS against Michigan in their last ten games
Illinois is the better talent overall. Shooting 48.3% on the year is impressive and should be more than enough to win this game. Being ranked #1 in the nation in assist per game (19.9) shows me they play as a team and get the good looks to make that 48.3% consistent. Illinois tightens the defense, plays their game and walks away with this one.
Dave’s pick: Illinois -6
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Comments
I took Michigan at plus 7.5. I like Michigan St. though.
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