College Football Picks 2008 Week 1; Part 2: More Picks
We have a “situation” over here.
I walk into the door of my condo yesterday and I hear a clunking sound. My wife is nowhere to be found, probably out walking by the lake or at one of those Yoga classes, so I follow the noise. It leads me to the washing machine and I open it up and much to my horror I find the remote control to the TV.
I’ve tried a blow dryer, replacing the batteries, shaking it, tapping it…. you name it. While I had it broken in perfectly it looks like it won’t be with us for kick off this season. May it rest in peace.
Thankfully we seem to have more TV’s than people in our household and I’ll just use a different remote if I can’t get the other one replaced in time. So are there any volunteers to call Direct TV for me and try and figure this one out? From my experiences with them I may get a live person on the phone by the time they kick off the Peach Bowl.
Let’s just get back to picking games….
Florida -35 Vs. Hawaii (Saturday 12:30 EST) 1 Unit
I was thinking about this one. I wasn’t thinking about the monster point spread or that June Jones was gone. I wasn’t thinking that Hawaii’s Heisman contender Colt Brennan was gone and Florida’s Heisman winner Tim Tebow is returning. What I was thinking was that for Hawaii this game is taking place at 6:30 am, they’re going to wish they had overslept as the Gators are probably covering by the half. It’s no help to the Rainbow Warriors that Florida is 6-0 against the spread as double digit home favorite.
Alabama +5 at Clemson (Saturday 8:00 EST) 1 Unit
Clemson fans seem to think I have something against them and their team but I speak from the heart that nothing could be further from the truth. I just feel that a program like theirs having a coach who has been there for nine years and the best he can do is a 4 loss season doesn’t exactly make me feel like everyone’s pick to win the ACC is such a lock nor that I’m going to be getting any value picking them this season. I have seen this line wavering between 5 and 5 1/2 and think there’s probably more value in the National Championship Ring wearing guy with NFL Head Coaching experience on the Alabama sideline. Neither team has a positive trend to speak of that would even come into play in this one.
Wisconsin -26 1/2 vs. Akron (Saturday 12pm EST) 2 Units
I hear people say Wisky isn’t as good as I expect them to be and they’re entitled to their opinion. I will quickly explain why that doesn’t matter this week: You see Wisconsin has gigantic players and loads of depth, Akron has neither. This is one of those wear them out grind it out and cover type games for the home team. They’ll be “jumpin around” plenty in Madison this weekend. Did I mention the Badgers are 7-0 against the spread when favored by more than 24 points?
USC -19 1/2 at Virginia (Saturday 3:30 EST) 1 Unit
While secretly a lot of us are hoping for a competitive game I think we may be out of luck. While UVa. eked out most of their victories last year they started slow and lost to Wyoming in their opener. While Pete Caroll’s Trojans may know where Wyoming is on a map, I think the comparisons end there. USC has something to prove this year and they try and start proving it Saturday. To make matters worse for the Wahoos USC is 20-7 against the spread out of conference while the Cavs are on a 2-7 run.
Boston College -9 1/2 at Kent State (Saturday 7:30 EST) 1 Unit
Kent State returns 16 starters and lost a lot of close games last year; they also turned the ball over tons. While based on those numbers you would think we see an improved Golden Flash team, I’m not sure that they are improved enough to play with a bigger and tougher BC squad. Kent State couldn’t cover getting 30 1/2 points last year at Columbus and I doubt they cover getting less than 10 against the Eagles in a game being played at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Though I like BC probably a spot we go very small.
Michigan State + 4 1/2 at Cal (Saturday 8:00 EST) 1 Unit
So you may be thinking: “Mitch, how in the heck can you take the Spartans when they’re 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 against the Pac-10?”. The answer is pretty easy: they’ve only played two games against the Pac-10 in the last 10 years and their 6-1 mark against the number in their last 7 road games is more relevant to the current coaching staff. Speaking of coaching staffs, this in Mark Dantonio’s second year in East Lansing and he builds some of the nastiest defenses, he may become a legend there.
Oregon -14 vs. Washington (Saturday 10pm EST) 2 Units
This is the game we’ve been waiting for, not because it’s two PAC-10 teams or we’re wondering what uniforms the Ducks will be sporting, we know that if we watched opening kickoff of the first game and see the final gun go off in this one we’ll have watched over 13 hours of football in one day. Nothing wrong with that.
By the way I’m not as sour on the Huskies as most but this just looks like a bad spot for them in a night game at Autzen Stadium. Throw in that Oregon is 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 at home, 9-4 vs. the number in their last 13 and Washington is 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 conference games and it doesn’t leave us many places to go. I’ve said it hundred times already but watch out for Oregon’s secondary, they may be the best in the nation.
Northern Illinois +8 1/2 at Minnesota (Saturday 7:00 EST) 1 Unit
It’s hard to believe that the only relevant trend regarding these two teams is that neither of them was very good last year. While the Gophers should be improved I think Northern Illinois is more improved as they go from an inexperienced team to one with 21 returning starters. While you can call me old fashioned I just don’t feel comfortable laying 8 1/2 points with a team that went 1-11 straight up last year.
Tulsa -14 at UAB (Saturday 4 EST) 1 Unit
All of the trends point to a UAB cover in this one. While it is against everything I believe in when it comes to picking games, I am going to go on record and take Tulsa. I think what we have here is the classic good team versus bad team game and I smell a blow out. UAB was just awful last year and Tulsa is a potential BCS buster and a real threat to run the table. Personally, in week 1 when all games are pretty tough to pick, I’m willing to give it a try.
Arkansas State +20 at Texas A&M (Saturday 7 EST) 1 Unit
While the trends certainly don’t point to Arkansas State being a lock by any means, they sure look a lot better than the trends for the alternative, Texas A&M. While Arkansas State is 4-1 against the spread in season openers the Aggies haven’t covered the number in the opener in their last 5 tries when there even was a line and 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 non conference games. Mike Sherman (yes that Mike Sherman) takes over as Head Coach at A&M and he has a decent offensive backfield to work with; he just doesn’t return that much else and this is a lot of points to cover.
I know there are a lot of games that are still out there and some of those are the “Big” games of the weekend. I have a lean in the Mizzou-Illinois game and one in the Michigan-Utah tilt as well but I’m not ready to put it in writing as of the time this article is ready to go so I may or may not be picking those games but regardless I’ll have an opinion later in the week of how I think they play out. I’m also still on the fence with Texas-FAU and really a few others.
If there are any games you want to hear me talk about specifically this or any week just drop me a line and I’ll include it in the next day’s article, While I may not have a pick I will most certainly have a reason for not picking it yet.
Another reminder that this is just week 1 and we’re looking at a marathon at this point, not a sprint. I think the idea that’s worked for me in the past is to keep it small early in the season for the most part, at least until these teams hit the field and we get to see what they’re really made of.
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