College Football Picks 2008 Week 10; Part 2: Mitch’s Free Predictions
While this week’s schedule might not be loaded with marquis match ups like we saw last weekend, there are still plenty of great games to be played this weekend.
Sure we’re still sprinkled with the Georgia-Florida game and Texas-Texas Tech but in general this is meat and potatoes conference play. While some people find these slug fests not as exciting as some of the the out of conference battles we saw earlier, this is all of the tradition that makes college football the wonderful sport it is.
We have a huge slate of games and I’m still poring through the stacks of data. Last night I sent out the entries for the free picking contest to the many who signed up. For those who haven’t you still have time and you are more than welcome to join us. It’s all free and it’s a lot of fun, I know I enjoy just looking through other people’s picks and I am thinking of making a change to the reporting of picks and I will note this in the forum.
What it comes down to is everyone likes talking about their picks but I don’t post them until the games have started, I do this in fairness to those who submit their picks early. I am thinking of giving the password out as a reply after I receive the picks and I’ll post the picks as I get them. Hit the forum and let me know what you think.
In any event, here’s some more games that I have been looking at.
Minnesota- 6 1/2 Vs. Northwestern (Saturday 11/1/08, 12 EST) 7 out of 10
These are two of the most improved teams in the Big Ten. Minnesota comes in at 7-1 and Northwestern is at 6-2, this is miles ahead of where these two teams stood at this point last season. Minnesota’s lone loss came in Columbus to Ohio State and there really isn’t much shame in that. Northwestern has had a common denominator in both of their losses and it’s bad turnovers in their own territory, they are going to have to hold onto the ball to have any chance of beating the Gophers. Statistically it looks pretty even except Northwestern appears to have problems against the pass and Minnesota has proven to be efficient throwing the ball.
Minnesota has covered 4 of the past 5 in this series but the series overall has been dominated by the road team who has covered in 8 of the past 9; the Wildcats however have covered in just 1 of their past 5 road games. Minnesota has covered in their last 6 conference games while Northwestern has gone 2-2 against the spread in their last 4. I look for Minnesota to continue their covering ways and to win this one going away.
Oregon +3 at Cal (Saturday 11/1/08, 3:30 EST) 5 out of 10
This one shapes up to be a pretty good game with a whole lot of meaning. Both of these teams have 1 conference loss and the way the Pac-10 is shaping up at this point it looks like this game could be the difference between second and fourth place. Both teams are good statistically in just about all areas but this may come down to Oregon being able to run the ball or Cal being able to throw on Oregon. Oregon’s numbers in pass defense appear skewed to me and we all know the Ducks have some of the best athletes in the nation ball hawking back there. Cal has been inconsistent at QB which has me leaning Oregon as I don’t think running the ball against the stingy run stuffing defense is an option for the Bears.
One of the main reasons I’m going with Oregon here is that Cal doesn’t seem to be able to win consistently in the conference. This is the heart of conference play and where seasons are mode and lost and I don’t have confidence that Cal can step up and make their season. The Bears are just 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 conference games. While Cal has covered it’s last 5 times in a row at home none of those teams had a winning record at the time and only 1 of them, Michigan State has a winning record currently. The Ducks have been inconsistent but it doesn’t come from not having the talent. This game looks even as 3 points is usually given to the home tea when making spreads. I’ll take the Ducks and the points.
Oregon State-14 1/2 Vs. Arizona State (Saturday 11/1/08, 10:15 EST) 7 out of 10
This is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions and while this game had a chance of a confidence rating of 8 or even higher, that all went out the window when the spread went up 4 1/2 point after opening at 10 and I am pretty sure it keeps going up. While it’s hard to criticize young men playing a game, ASU has been awful lately and appears to be a team that has quit. While I think Dennis Erickson may be one of the best coaches in the country and seriously one of the best offensive minds ever, his teams have a tendency to quit when things aren’t going their way. It’s not something I’m just spewing but I saw it in Miami before he got run and we all saw it in both of his NFL gigs. He is a guy who can turn around a program fast like last year at ASU and when he was at Oregon State but tis year his team isn’t even playing hard anymore.
Statistically Arizona State has had two major problems in their last 5 games: they can’t play offense and they can’t play defense. Mike Riley has his Oregon State team playing really well and moving the ball, especially on the ground. The Beavers are just making plays when they need to, it’s that simple really and that’s how you win games as it demoralizes the opposition. The news gets worse for ASU in the trends as the home team has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series, the favorite has covered the last 5, and Oregon State has covered 4 of the last 5 times these two have played. I like the Beavers a lot and like I said I would have given it an even higher ranking if the line wasn’t moving so fast.
Troy -10 at Louisiana-Monroe (Saturday 11/1/08, 7 EST) 7 out of 10
I’m not sure if my college football week this year could be complete without me picking the Troy Trojans, one of the best value teams we have found. For those keeping score at home, I have picked Troy every game they have played this year and have been rewarded with a 5-1 record against the number as it appears the rest of the world has been pretty slow to jump on board this gravy train which has made it just right for us. Once again we see Troy involved in a statistical mismatch where they are getting very little respect as the line has oscillated between where is now and single digits. While ULM’s only two wins have come against North Texas and Alabama A&M, Troy’s only two losses have been on the road at Ohio State and Oklahoma State, the latter being the game they didn’t cover in.
Both of these teams have strong numbers in the trends department and have covered in conference. I really just can’t get past the numbers in this one. ULM is 114th in total yards allowed, 89th against the pass and 114th against the run. Troy’s offense is 20th in total yards and 25th in points scored. Things don’t get better for the Warhawks on the other side of the ball as Troy’s defense matches up well with ULM’s offense. I have been on the Trojans this long and I see no reson to back off them now.
Florida International + 7 1/2 at Louisiana Lafayette (Saturday 11/1/08, 5 EST) 5 out of 10
When we think of teams that are 6-1 agaiinst the spread this year these aren’t the first two teams that come to mind but that is the case with both of them. Before the Toledo-FIU game one of the readers asked me if I felt Toledo was a lock, my response was that FIU was a team that scared me because they are located in the heart of one of the most tlent rich areas for High School Football in the country and while Miami, Florida, and Florida State and really many ohters will get most of the high level talent, there are always alot of players that slip through the cracks. If you ever watch the NFL the have a segment where the players introduce themselves, how many teams are more than half their starters from a place you wouldn’t have thought? I would say most.
For those not familiar with these teams ULL is the type of team that scores a ton of points and doesn’t play much defense. FIU is the type of team that hits and is now playing hard for coach Mario Cristobal. Both of these teams play tight games and I look for this one to be tight as well. I think FIU has righted the ship and of their trend of improvement continues we have another coach of the year candidate in what has already become as muddled as the BCS picture. I am going with FIU as while there is still value with the Golden Panthers; I’m thinking we not be getting much value with them in the future.
San Jose State - 16 1/2 at Idaho (Saturday 11/1/08, 5 EST) 6 out of 10
I really like San Jose State in this spot and really the only concern is how they come out of last weeks game, the loss to Boise, mentally. San Jose State had a chance to really move their program forward and while they certainly played to win, took chances, and really made a nice showing, in the end the didn’t have enough to compete with Boise. This week the Spartans have more than enough as Idaho’s defense is a sieve and Idaho’s offense is no match for San Jose who is clearly at a different level right now. Last week the Vandals ahocked us and everyone lse by winning outright against New Mexico State, I think that game will be the highlight of Idaho’s season.
Idaho has trends that are typical of a doormat team going 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 home games and 3-14 in their last 17 conference games. The Spartans are 8-2 against the number in their last 10 overall, 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 conference games, and 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games. Barring a real hang over from last weeks loss San Jose State wins in a romp.
Well that’s all for today and I’ll be back tomorrow with more picks and Jordan should be giving us at least some of his picks as well ( I believe he said he had 9 or 10 this week!). We have game Thursday night and like it or not I’ll be picking it, we’ll try and get Jordan’s take on that game as well.
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Comments
Hey Mitch with all due respect how can you say that Idaho’s offense is no match for San Jose’s offense right now.
San Jose St.
avg 20.9 pts per game
300.1 Total yards
180.4 Passing yards (5.9 per attempt)
119.8 Rushing yards (3.5 per rush)
Idaho
avg 20.4 pts per game
328.4 Total yards
191.2 Passing yards (5.9 per attempt)
137.2 Rushing yards (3.9 per rush)
San Jose St. has played some better competition, but Idaho is getting 16 1/2 at home coming off a big win.
Not real sure about that one.
You make a good point but actually I never compare offense to offense an defense to defense, I compare offense against defense for both teams. College football is all about match ups as far as I’m concerned because of the sometimes massive talent disparities we see.
with that being said he numbers you give for Idaho ranks them 91st in points scored in the country and 7th in the conference, ypg is 89th in the country and 6th in the wac, it just get granular from there and you have the numbers but SJ st. defensively is 30th in the country in points allowed, 2nd in the WAC and 16th in the country in ypg allowed 1st in the WAC. does Idaho get through this? I doubt it.just my 2 cents
Ohh I understand fully about matchups, but the matchups favored NMST last weekend up there also and I got burned on that one. I just don’t see 16 1/2 as a good value here with SJ.St. Good luck with it.
Lol funny stuff.
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