College Football Picks 2008 Week 12; Part 1: Mitch’s Free Predictions

We have Tuesday night MAC football this week, and it features the undefeated and ranked Ball State Cardinals taking on the Miami (OH) Redhawks.

It’s another loaded week of college football with one game Tuesday, 2 games Wednesday, Three games Thursday, 1 game Friday, and a full schedule of games on Saturday. Of course the free picking contest will only include Saturday games but of course that doesn’t mean we aren’t going to pick every weekday game which has been the case all season.

While tonight’s game isn’t as attractive the games get better as the week go on and of course they will be included in other articles as the week goes on. While we have the Tuesday game here, we also have 5 more games that are being played Saturday. So let’s get to it.

Ball State -18 at Miami (OH) (Tuesday 11/11/08, 7 EST) 7 out of 10

Last week I tried to get “too cute” when I took Northern Illinois at +9 1/2 to cover against Ball State. Sure Northern had a good chance to cover and yes I was covered because I knew Jordan was pounding the table to the readers that Ball State was the play, but I felt inclined to pick the Huskies to cover and give it a low confidence rating (4 out of 10) just to try and get my point across that NIU has been a decent cover team this year. To be honest I was on the fence and while I said it was a game I wouldn’t have normally played, maybe I should have just not played it instead of thinking Northern actually had a chance to control the ball long enough to keep Nate Davis and the Ball State offense of the field long enough to keep him ineffective. Well my pick cost me and I am not going to make the same mistake this week as I can’t even make a case why Miami (OH) comes withing 3 touchdowns of the undefeated Cardinals. Miami (OH) comes into this contest at 2-7 straight up and sporting the 95th ranked defense and the 109th ranked offense. Ball State comes in a perfect 9-0 and 11th in the country in points scored and 9th in the country in points allowed, what we have is a good old fashioned statistical mismatch.

Ball State comes in at 7-1 against the spread with their only non cover coming against Eastern Michigan on a late EMU touchdown as the Cardinals were laying 27 1/2 and ended up only winning by 22. The Redhawks come in at 3-4 against the spread and outscored by a combined 53 points in their last 2 games. Also in Ball State’s favor is that the road team has covered each of the last 5 games in this series. Miami (OH) is 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 home games, 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 conference games, and 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 overall. Ball State is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 conference games and 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 against a team with a losing record. I hope the announcers have a lot of that “cradle of coaches” material ready because this one may get out of hand in a hurry as Ball State will be looking to make a statement on national TV.

Mississippi State +20 at Alabama (Saturday 11/15/08, 12:30 EST) 5 out of 10

If someone told me they thought the total score between these two teams is less than 20 combined it may be a tough point to find an argument. This game sets up to be a hard hitting SEC battle and Mississippi State comes in off of a bye week while the Crimson Tide have just a week to recover from their hard fought win on the Bayou at LSU. While I don’t think Mississippi State has the offense to score enough points to beat the Tide, I think they are stingy enough to set up a low enough scoring game where they should be within the 20 points they are being allotted. Given that the Bulldogs rank 115th in scoring offense and Alabama has the 7th ranked defense, MSU is going to be hard pressed to find the endzone more than once and will have to take advantage of any opportunities their defense who is 20th in yards allowed per game gets them. This game sets up to be played between the tackles as Alabama ranks 100th in passing offense and Mississippi State is 2nd in the country in pass defense.

All of the trends regarding this series set up for a Bulldog cover. Mississippi State has covered in 10 of their last 13 meetings with Alabama and are 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 meetings in Alabama. The underdog has also covered in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these schools and the road team has covered 6 of the last 7 times they have played each other. Alabama is focused on winning a National Title which is well within their reach but a week after a real physical game at LSU and with a spot in the SEC championship game already clinched I look for the Tide’s bench to see some action and MSU gets the cover.

Boise State -34 at Idaho (Saturday 11/15/08, 5 EST) 7 out of 10

Last week I liked Boise all along and I waited to post my pick in their game and it ended up costing me a cover and gave me a push when they won right on the final number at 35. I am not making the same mistake this week though I think the Vandals are going to need far more than the 34 they are getting if they plan on covering against Boise. The Broncos are in the home stretch and are thinking BCS game for the second time in 3 years. Boise hits the field as the 16th ranked team in the country in scoring and second in the country in scoring defense, rankings that mean a lot of wins in the grand scheme of things. Idaho ranks 92nd in scoring offense and 118th in scoring defense and doesn’t rank better than 109th in any major defensive category.

Boise had covered in 8 of the past 11 meetings between these 2 schools and the bulk of those games have had large point spreads similar to what we are seeing this week. Idaho is 4-14 against the spread in their last 18 conference games and is 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 home games. Boise is 4-0 in their last 4 on the road and is 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 in the conference. These are two teams on the opposite end of the college football food chain and I look for Boise State to roll.

Navy +3 1/2 Vs. Notre Dame (Saturday 11/15/08, 12 EST) 6 out of 10

Last year Navy beat the Irish for the the first time in several decades, this year the Midshipmen look to make it a habit. Notre Dame started the year strong and they had many people thinking BCS bowl, as the season has gone on and as reality has set in the Irish have shown that they aren’t a much better team than they were last year, they just have taken advantage of what has been an easier schedule. Every time this year that Notre Dame has been asked to step it up and especially on the road, they have failed and failed miserably. Navy started the season at 1-2 and have won 5 of 6 since then. The Middies have done it just as they always have, all on the ground ranking 2nd in the country in rushing offense and 119th in passing offense. Notre Dame has a hard time running the ball and will try and move it through the air against Navy’s 105th ranked pass defense.

While Navy is the home team this game is being played in Baltimore and is considered more of a neutral site game. Both of these teams have some strong trends coming in but something has to give. Navy is 11-4 in their last 15 games following a bye week and have covered 5 of the last 7 times against the Irish. Notre Dame is 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 road games and are 5-1 in their last 6 as the road team in this series. While trends are always nice to monitor, sometimes they lose their relevance as teams rise and fall from prominence. In this case Notre Dame just isn’t the team they have been in their storied past and I like Navy to cover and quite possibly win.

Wisconsin -13 Vs. Minnesota (Saturday 11/15/08, 3:30 EST) 6 out of 10

Up until a few weeks ago Minnesota looked like the comeback story of the year and Head Coach Tim Brewster looked like a shoe in to be a Coach of the Year finalist. What a difference a few weeks makes as a Northwestern miracle interception for a TD and a thorough beating at the hands of the Michigan Wolverines for the Little Brown Jug later, Minnesota looks to be the team looking to gain it’s footing from a tailspin. Wisconsin seemed to be playing well enough early winning three in a row and then a close loss to Ohio State followed by a blow out loss to Penn State and Wisky looked like a team that wasn’t going to win again this season. The Badgers have now won 2 of their last 3 and even the one they lost was by a point against a good Michigan State team at East Lansing. The Badgers need to win out if they want to insure that they go bowling this post season, a loss and they may be on the outside looking in.

The home team is 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 meetings between these 2. Wisconsin has covered 5 of the last 6 times these schools have met and Wisonsin has covered the last 4 times the game has been played in Madison. I look for the Badgers to pound the ball at Minnesota which isn’t what the doctor ordered for a bruised team late in the season. This is also a traditional rivalry and is played for Paul Bunyon’s Axe I look for the Wisconsin to take the Golden Gophers behind the woodshed.

Oklahoma State -17 at Colorado (Saturday 11/15/08, 8 EST) 7 out of 10

Even after suffering their second loss of the season last week in Lubbock, it’s been a magical year for Mike Gundy’s Cowboys. While there were modest expectations for Oklahoma State at the start of the season, OSU threatened in the Big 12 which has had more teams than anyone perched atop the national rankings at one point or another this season. Colorado was thought to be young and rebuilding but when they started the season they appeared to be ahead of schedule, pounding rival Colorado State and beating then highly ranked West Virginia. Since that time the Buffalo have come down to earth and injuries have set in and while they still can compete and win against the lesser teams, they seem to not be able to stay in the game against the better teams as Missouri proved a few weeks ago in their 58-0 win against Colorado. While Oklahoma State’s defense is just average, their offense has been superlative ranking in the top 10 in both points and yards per game. Colorado shows their youth and inexperience in the stats having the 105th ranked scoring offense and 84th ranked scoring defense.

Oklahoma State comes in at 8-1 against the spread while Colorado is 2-7 against the spread this season. Oklahoma State has also covered 5 of their last 7 against Colorado. Aside from being 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 overall, they are also 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 road games, and 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 conference games. Colorado is 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games overall and 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games. The Cowboys are probably still smarting from last week’s loss and probably take out some frustration by covering against Colorado.

That’s all for today. I’ll be back tomorrow picking both Wednesday Night games and more of the Saturday games. For more free picks like these that you won’t find anywhere else on the site be sure to sign up for my free newsletter. It’s free, quick and easy and also gains you entry into my free picking contest.

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