College Football Picks 2008 Week 12; Part 2: Mitch’s Free Predictions

We have college football every night of the week this week form last night forward and with the season winding down, we may as well enjoy it.

I’m not sure why ESPN feels the need to show Temple so many times but I guess we can be thankful that at least they are off of their Ohio University kick for a week. While I think it’s nice to get exposure to some of the smaller conferences, maybe just once a year or so gets it done. In fact, Temple has had more national games at this point than USC, Penn State, or Oklahoma. At least we have an alternative game in Northern Illinois and Central Michigan which is usually a very entertaining match up.

Speaking of entertaining, I sent out the games last night for my free picking contest so if you haven’t received them just shoot me an email and let me know. For those not signed up, there is still plenty of time to enter and it’s free and easy to get involved.

Last night we also had another milestone event as we hosted our first in game chat ever in the history of the site. While I wasn’t too good at spreading the word because I wasn’t sure I would be able to get it set up in time, we had a handful of people show up and chat which was enough to know it works. This, like everything else, will be a growing experience and as we had over 7,000 unique visitors last Saturday, my guess is it will grow pretty quickly. There are links in the forums and I will post every time we are going to have one which should be during any weekday games, all day Saturday, or really anytime there is a game on.

It will be especially fun on days when there are multiple games so we can get updates from people all over the country. My goal is for next year to host handicapping chats as well so we can talk about what we are looking at, those will probably be just like a Monday or Tuesday thing though I am looking into just making those moderated conference calls with Jordan and myself, things are growing fast. More on this to come.

Speaking of games and chats, here are my picks and analysis of tonight’s games along with more picks as we continue on with week 12 in college football.

Temple -1 at Kent State (Wednesday 11/12/08, 8 EST) 3 out of 10

This is a horrible game and if it wasn’t on a Wednesday night I wouldn’t waste the time writing this as my attention span watching this one will be shorter than it takes me to get to the end of this sentence. what we have are 2 teams with 5 combined wins and nothing at stake as they play out the string. It is a battle of ineptitude as Temple’s offense can’t move the ball or score and Kent State has a hard tome stopping anyone, on the other side of the ball it’s a case of solid mediocrity.

Kent State comes in at 2-5 against the spread on the season while Temple is at 6-2-1  against the number. Kent State is 1-9 against the spread in their last 9 at home and 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 conference games. Temple is 13-3-1 against the spread in their last 17 conference games and are 5-1-1 following a bye week. I think that even though their record doesn’t show it, Temple has had a season to build on and they continue to build by beating Kent State.

Northern Illinois -3 1/2 Vs. Central Michigan (Wednesday 11/12/08, 8 EST) 4 out of 10

This is a match up that a lot of my friends give me a hard time about as I always have a pretty strong opinion about it and while I’m usually on the right side of it it’s the game 2 years ago where Northern Illinois beat a very good Central Michigan team where I considered the Chippewas a “lock”, that was the last time I used that term to refer to one of my picks. As always, this game gives us an interesting match up as Central Michigan is 7-2 straight up and winners of 5 in a row and Northern Illinois were the kings of the cover earlier this season but haven’t covered in either of their last 2 times out. Northern is favored in this one primarily because of their power running game and the match up against Central Michigan’s questionable defense. On the other side of the ball Norther Illinois has the 16th ranked defense in the country and Central Michigan’s offense is somewhat one dimensional as they are reliant on the passing game.

The trends are squarely in the Huskies favor as they are 7-2-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these 2. The favorite is 5-2-1 against the spread in the last 8 meetings and the home team is 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 meetings, Finally, Central Michigan hasn’t covered in their last 5 trips to Northern Illinois and while I was originally leaning CMU I am going to do an about face and go with NIU.

Rutgers +8 at South Florida (Saturday 11/15/08, 12 EST) 5 out of 10

These are 2 teams playing the second half of the season totally differently than they started. For Rutgers this is good news as they have won 3 in a row and still have a chance to get Bowl eligible. South Florida on he other hand started very strong but has managed to lose 3 of their last 4. While QB Mike Teel’s play hasn’t improved much for the Scarlet Knights, the rest of the team has rallied to cover for his ineffectiveness. In fact, Rutgers has played pretty well since losing the third game of the season to Navy in a game which in hindsight wasn’t as much of an upset it was made out to be. South Florida has a great first team but is having typical depth problems of a newly emerged power as recruiting classes of recent success haven’t had a chance to accumulate nor kick in, they will in the coming years.

Rutgers come into this game at 4-4 against the spread while South Florida is just 2-6 against the number. Rutgers has been playing well lately and are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games and 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 conference games. South Florida is 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 overall but are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 home games and 4-0 against the spread following a bye week (which they really needed this time). While the thought of Mike Teel having to make plays while being chased by George Selvie doesn’t sound promising I think the gets enough support from his team mates to at least keep this one close.

Arizona State -36 1/2 Vs. Washington State (Saturday 11/15/08, 5:30 EST) 7 out of 10

I haven’t been one of those people jumping all over whomever Washington State plays every week but I think at this point I’m ready to as all that have chosen to do that have been rewarded handsomely this season. Washington State is the worst team in the country and is a team who has given up. Arizona State has been a major disappointment this year as well but Dennis Erickson has a reputation of blowing teams out when he has a decided talent advantage and I think he give the home folks something to cheer about this week by anhiliating the Cougars. Arizona State comes in at 3-6 and comes in in the second half of the country in most statistical categories except for passing which they are 33rd in yeards gained. Washington State ranks dead last in most statistical categories, most importantly, points allowed where they average giving up over 50 while scoring an average of just over 13.

Neither of these teams have been overly effective covering the spread as Washington State covered for the first time all season last week and the Sun Devils come in at 3-4 against the number. While Washington State managed to cover last week against Arizona, I don’t look for history to repeat itself in that regard. The favorite has covered in 7 of the last 9 games payed between these two schools. The Home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games and Arizona State has covered 4 of the last 5 games between these two. I look for ASU to take out a season of frustration in 60 minutes of football on Saturday and cover going away.

Texas -13 at Kansas (Saturday 11/15/08, 12:30 EST) 7 out of 10

My guess is this line is this low because the game is in Kansas and many feel that with the Jayhawk’s crowd sky high and with Texas having defensive problems at times that Kansas should be able to keep this one close, I beg to differ and think Texas runs KU out of the building on Saturday. I just think Texas is too much for a Kansas team that is another that struggles from the same things that happen to most other programs who have a great year seemingly out of nowhere as Kansas had last season. What happens is that even though you get a good amount of starters returning you just don’t have the depth to play week in and week out against the deeper and more established programs. While last year’s performance will undoubtedly bring future dividends as far as recruiting and talent, it usually takes a few years to see those results. As such, I haven’t seen Kansas put together a full 60 minutes of solid football all year.

The Longhorns come in at 7-3 against the spread while Kansas is 5-4 against the number. Both of these teams are led by great QB’s as Colt McCoy is having a career year at Texas and Todd Reesing seems to just make plays for Kansas. Texas has been favored the last 6 times these teams have met and have covered the spread on 5 of those occasions. Texas is also 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games and 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games. Kansas is 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 home games and 4-1 against the spread in their lst 5 following a straight up loss. While Kansas is a good team they have had trouble stepping it up against the top tier teams this season and I look for Texas to continue to make a statement for a BCS bowl berth.

Purdue +17 1/2 at Iowa (Saturday 11/11/08, 12 EST) 5 out of 10

Congratulations to the Iowa Hawkeyes on their epic win last week over previously unbeaten Penn State. While I didn’t pick that game I think as a fan of the game that games like those are what make the sport what it is. I also am a firm believer and know from my own experience that it is ames like that which take a casual fan who was either at the game or watching it on TV and turns them into the hard core fan for life, it’s really what college football is all about. While I don’t think Iowa has a dramatic letdown here, I just think we may be looking at a scenario where the public is really falling for Iowa and are just giving too many points. Purdue hasn’t been good in Joe Tiller’s final season and he isn’t going to have the story book season that coaches dream about when they announce their retirement, his team isn’t an absolute stinker either and they are more than capable of covering a big point spread against anyone.

While Purdue is just 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 12 overall and 2-5-1 against the spread in their last 8 conference games, Iowa doesn’t have trends which are much better. Iowa is 3-7 against the spread in games following an against the spread win and just 3-8 against the spread when playing teams with a losing record. While I think Iowa is a nice story and while I think last weeks game was just awesome for the the game itself, I don’t think the Hawkeyes cover 3 scores in this one.

Well that’s all the picks for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with more picks and analysis for all three Thursday night games as well as a few others. If you want even more free picks and write ups like these from Jordan and myself, be sure to sign up for my free newsletter. It’s easy to sign up and also gives you entry into the free picking contest.

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