College Football Picks 2008 Week 13; Part 3: Mitch’s Free Predictions

I just really like saying the nicknames for all of the games this week and talking about all of the traditional trophies that are given out for the games.

While many consider the bowls the tradition that is college football, it’s really these games and rivalries that go far beyond a football game. While we don’t have a spread on the Harvard-Yale game that will be played Saturday, you can bet there are a lot of people who care about it.

We obviously have a lot of people that care about many of the games as the entries have been coming in for this week’s free picking contest. There is still plenty of time to enter and get involved and it’s all free. While it isn’t the typical picking contest that you see, it certainly creates some interesting scenarios and we can really get a feel for what games people feel strongly about across the board, not just a few select games that I decide on.

The forums are also really heating up and there has been some great info exchanged so feel free to post or to at least vote in out numerous polls regarding some games that are on the board. The in game chats can also be accessed through the forum and they have been a big hit for those who have participated; I really enjoy getting a chance to chat with and get to know everyone.

In any event we have a lot of ground to still cover and a lot more games to look at so let’s just continue with what we do around here.

Purdue -11 1/2 Vs. Indiana (Saturday 11/22/08, 12 EST) 6 out of 10

I’m not sure what the over/under is on how many times I’ll say “Old Oaken Bucket” between now and the end of Saturday but I know my wife is betting the over while solidly hoping for the under. It’s a trophy game, It’s revenge, it’s the season ender, and it’s Purdue’s goodbye to retiring Head Coach Joe Tiller. While the Boilers aren’t going to send Tiller out the way they had hoped, with a bowl win, they are going to do their best to send him out with some nice parting gifts, like a decades old bucket. Both teams come in having seasons they would rather forget as they are an identical 3-8. Both teams have dropped 7 of their last 8 games and both teams covered last week as big dogs. When simply looking at the numbers it’s just clear that Indiana’s problems are on both sides of the ball as are Purdue’s but while Indiana ranks in the 100’s in most major defensive categories, Purdue ranks quite a bit higher. I would have given this game a higher rating but Indiana has a decent running game ranked 44th in the country while Purdue’s rush defense is their worst category ranking 96th in the country.  You have to keep in mind that a 3-8 is the victim of other teams trying to milk the clock and running the vast majority of the second half of games, I don’t think Inidiana is going to be taking on that strategy in this one.

Indiana enters this game at 2-7-1 against the spread this year while Purdue is 4-5-1 against the number. The home team has covered in 8 of the last 10 meetings and Purdue has covered 4 of the last 5 years. Indiana is 0-5 in their last 5 following an against the spread win and are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 following a straight up loss. The Hoosiers are also not known for finishing strong as they are 6-16-1 in their last 23 November games. Purdue is 8-3-1 against the spread when playing teams with a losing record and are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games in November. I look for Purdue to be real fired uo and to send Joe Tiller out a winner.

Mississippi +4 at LSU (Saturday 11/22/08, 2:30 EST) 5 out of 10

This is a big game for both of these teams. LSU, after surviving a major scare last week against Troy, is at 7-3 while Ole Miss comes in at 6-4. In Houston Nutt’s first season for the Rebels, long stretches of disappointment are becoming a bright future while in Baton Rouge LSU is feeling the effects of success as when players leave early and top recruits end up being head cases that end up leaving the team, every week becomes somewhat of an adventure. While Les Miles is one heck of a coach and really just a great football guy, he just doesn’t have the depth he’s had the last few years. While Ole Miss maybe doesn’t have the amount of talent they have managed to squander of the past few decades, they have enough to show the world they they are probably going to be a force as long as Coach Nutt decides to stay in town.

LSU comes into this contest at 2-7 against the spread while Ole Miss is 6-3 against the number. LSU suffers in this area as many of the top teams that go on several year runs do as they get put in scenarios to cover large numbers when quite frankly winning by a ton isn’t usually their style, they are built like a lot champions, on defense. The underdog in this series is a remarkable 7-1 against the spread in the last 8 meetings and the road team is 7-2 against the number in the last 9. Ole Miss is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games and is 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record. LSU is 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 home games and is just 1-4 against a team with a winning record. While many felt last week was a wake up call for LSU I think it more just highlighting some areas they need to address in recruiting and not a lot of veteran depth. While I’m not 100% convinced Ole Miss can win, I think they can keep the final within a FG in what should be a very nice game for the fans of the game like us.

UNLV -11 at San Diego State (Saturday 11/22/08, 8 EST) 7 out of 10

I get a lot of emails and comments asking my opinion on different games and when I saw this one hit the board I knew this would be one the fans would be buzzing about. I mean just how bad is San Diego State this year? Well let’s just say they weren’t handed that 1-10 record they are sporting, they solidly earned it on the field. The Aztecs have that rare combination of the 114th ranked scoring offense and 115th ranked scoring defense with the 120th ranking defense against the run sprinkled in for good measure. While UNLV isn’t setting the world on fire with their 5-6 overall record and their 61st ranked scoring offense and their 100th ranked scoring defense, they are worlds better than SDSU.

UNLV comes in at 6-4-1 against the the spread while San Diego State has been able to cover some monster spreads against some not so good teams and have managed to go 4-6 against the number so far this year. While the series trends clearly favor SDSU, it may be payback time for the road favorite. San Diego State is a miserable 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 conference games and 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games on grass which is a particularly bad sign since their home field has a grass surface. UNLV has covered 4 of their last 5 games overall, is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 conference games, and loves the grass surface going 4-1 against the number on it. I am going to just leave this one by saying that it probably isn’t a lot of fun being and Aztec fan this season and things don’t look to good for them this weekend.

Florida International -6 1/2 Vs. UL Monroe (Saturday 11/22/08, 7 EST) 6 out of 10

Tose who have been reading my “stuff” for a while know that I fully expected FIU to be a better team this year than we have seen from them in the past, it only makes sense. When you have school that is geographically located in one of the most talent rich areas of the country, a few gems and late bloomers are bound to slip through the cracks and fall to you; this is exactly what is going on at Florida International. Before I get too carried away, FIU is just 4-5 overall but that is a huge improvement from last season. UL Monroe has been competitive in most of their games this year but have ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard in the majority going 3-8 thus far. The problems are pretty simple for ULM and something we see in a lot of teams with losing records, they have a heck of a time trying to stop the run ranking 113th in the country avering giving up over 220 yards per game.

While ULM is a decent 5-5 against the spread this year, FIU is an impressive 7-2 against the number. Both of these teams have nice trends as they really have taken advantage of being big underdogs fairly often. ULM has covered in 4 of their last 5 conference games and are 16-7 against the spread in their last 23 road games. FIU has covered 4 straight at home, 5 of their last 6 conference games, and 4 in a row against teams with losing records. I look for FIU to continue it’s rise as they still have a few games left and most are winnable so a winning record is still a possibility which would be nothing short of miraculous considering where they came from in prior years.

Ohio State -20 1/2 Vs. Michigan (Saturday 11/22/08, 12 EST) 7 out of 10

I have been debating this game, not so much who i like to cover, but more where to place it in my weekly pick series I do. While the past few years this has been a big game, this year it’s an also ran which peole are thinking less about than the Holy War game between Utah and BYU which I should get a chance to talk about in my next article. While for the past several years around this time the media has jammed down our throats how this is always a gigantic game, this year this game makes the media jam a shoe into their mouth as this game doesn’t mean a heck of a lot unless Rich Rodriguez’s Wolverines manage to pull the major upset in Columbus which I will say right now, isn’t going to happen. These two teams don’t like each other and while Jim Tressel owns Michigan in this series anyway, this time he has such an advantage in talent that the home folk in Columbus may continue the tailgate celebration past New Years as the Buckeye’s should really lay an unsympathetic beating on the hated rivals from Ann Arbor.

This is the part of the article where I usually get into trends and their are plenty to support my Ohio State pick and I’ll probably lay a few out in the forums and comments section as the game nears but I can tell you the trend is that Michigan isn’t good this year and while I was hopeful that Rodriguez could coach any players, I was dead wrong and much like his team, I have given up. The Buckeyes on the other hand have 2 losses this year, both in huge games for them; 1 at USC and the other at home to Penn State. I believe this week Ohio State takes out the frustration of those two big game losses and puts a real hurting on the Wolverines.

That’s all of the picks for today but I’ll be back tomorrow and try and include a few more of these rivalry and trophy games. For those who are newer, feel free to aske me about any game you want an opinion on or for me to do a write up, while I can’t guarantee a winner, I can guarantee that I will do a write up. Remember, for even more free picks like these be sure to sign up for my free weekly newsletter for picks you won’t find anywhere else on this site.

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