College Football Picks 2008 Week 13; Part 4: Mitch’s Free Predictions
When we are watching College Football tonight we need to keep in mind that there are only a few weeks left in the season and we should enjoy every moment of it.
Tonight’s match ups leave a lot to be desired but as is always the case, if it’s a weeknight game, I’m going to take a stab at it. Not sure why ESPN couldn’t have moved the Louisville-WVU game to Friday or something similar but who knows, maybe they think we like watching Pat Hill’s bunch showing us how not to teach kids how to tackle.
In any event the free newsletter will go out today and with any luck I’ll get it out a lot earlier than normal. Jordan has two picks again in it this week in the newsletter and one of them is a PAC-10 game which he has been nailing all season long like going 3 out of 3 last week including the two he gave in the free newsletter.
I am hoping that next season I’ll be sending it out on Thursday nights so you can catch the best lines possible if you are into that sort of thing. I have been getting all of the entries for the free picking contest as well and if you haven’t heard back from me it just means I haven’t had time to enter it yet. I should be able to get to it shortly and for those of you who haven’t registered, you still have time and you are going to want to at least get registered as the bowl picking contest will be our biggest and best yet and a nice way to round out our first College Football season.
If the site is getting slow please let me know. I am not a tech person (I don’t know how to text on a cell phone) but I am learning what bandwidth means along with other terms as we had over 12,500 unique visitors yesterday and it just gets bigger every day. We are dealing with all of this stuff the best we can but it it is a growth process and I am hoping to do a few things like the College Hoops site everyone has been asking us to do sooner rather than later. I have more to add but I will just talk about it in the newsletter and as things become firmer.
In any event we have some football to play and talk about and here are tonight’s match ups along with a few more for tomorrow.
San Jose State +3 1/2 Vs. Fresno State (Friday 11/21/08, 9:30 EST) 5 out of 10
What we have here is a rivalry game that most people in the Eastern part of the country and even beyond that don’t know is a rivalry. This is a match up of two different styles, for Fresno State they try and get it done with offense. While the Bulldogs rank 29th in points scored and 31st in yards gained, they have troubles with the fundamentals, more specifically, tackling. Fresno ranks 96th in yards allowed 90th in points allowed and this is where their problems have been this season. For San Jose State, it is the exact opposite, all defense and no offense. The Spartans come in ranked 34th in yards allowed and and 38th in points allowed but ranked North of a hundred in all of the major offensive categories. I would think SJSU tries to keep this low scoring and create chances for their offense to pull out the win at home.
San Jose State has gone 5-5 against the spread this season while Fresno State has been a disappointing 1-9 against the number. The favorite in this game has covered the last 5 times but the home team has gone 5-1 in the last 6 against the spread. San Jose State definitely plays better at home going 9-2 against the spread in their last 11but are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 conference games and haven’t covered in their last 4 overall. Fresno State doesn’t usually play well in these Friday night tilts going 0-6 against the spread. The Bulldogs are also just 3-12 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record and and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 road games. I look for Fresno State’s disappointing season to continue tonight as the Spartans cover at home.
Miami (OH) +3 at Toledo (Friday 11/21/08, EST) 2 out of 10
I though since both of these teams are 2-8 coming in that a 2 is the appropriate rank to give this game. This falls into the category of the games that if they were played on a Saturday I wouldn’t be anywhere near this one but since it is on a Friday I will stick with what I always do and try and make a call. Neither of these teams are very good. As is usually the case with teams with these kinds of records there isn’t much to talk about as far as stats as neither has done anything that would lead me to believe they have any kind of advantage in this match up. Toledo hasn’t won at home all year While Miami does have half of their wins on the road.
Both teams come in at .500 against the spread and that may be the best of what they have to show from this disappointing season. Miami has gone 9-4 in their last 13 road games and are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. The Redhawks are also a dreadful 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 conference games. While the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 meetings between these 2 and are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 home games, they are just 1-4 against the spread following a cover. This is a bad game and I am going to take the home team with the points but in all honestly I won’t be anywhere near this one. I know a lot of people from Ohio visit here so if anyone sees an angle I’m all ears.
Buffalo +4 at Bowling Green (Friday 11/21/08, 6 EST) 6 out of 10
While I usually don’t read his picks until after I have posted mine, I happened to read Jordan’s pick on this one as it was the top of all of his picks for this week based on the time and date and I have to say I agree with his opinions. I am not sure where this line comes from but it’s almost scary and has a trap like feel to it as Buffalo has been the consistently better team this season. Buffalo comes in at 6-4 and winners of 4 straight; all of their losses have been to teams that are looking at a major bowl appearance. Bowling Green enters at 5-5 and has won 2 straight but have been plagued by inconsistency. While the Falcons have been inconsistent, they can still grab a share of the MAC East lead with win tonight, Buffalo can all but wrap it up with a victory.
Buffalo has been on a roll on the road covering their last times. The Bulls are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 conference games and are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 overall. Bowling Green is 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 conference games and 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 overall. Unfortunately, the Falcons are 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 home games and 1-4 against the spread in the game following a cover. I like Buffalo in this one and feel the have a more than legitimate chance to win this game outright.
Middle Tennessee State -20 1/2 Vs. North Texas State (Saturday 11/21/08, 3:30 EST) 7 out of 10
I was joking around in the chat room last Saturday while I was watching the MTSU-WKU game that there were less than 10 people watching that game and I was one of them, looking at this line and the movement, apparently not. The Blue Raiders had no problems with the Hilltoppers last week and I don’t expect the Mean Green to put up much of a fight either. North Texas State enters this one with just one win, ironically against WKU, and they haven’t really been competitive too many times. While it isn’t the season they were hoping for in Murfesboro, Middle Tennessee State is still progressing as we have to remember they haven’t been a D-1 program for all that long. If the Blue Raiders win out they can finish at 6-6 which is right where we had them before the season started.
North Texas is 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games overall and just 1-5 against the spread in conference games. While the Blue Raiders are a horrible 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 conference games and 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games overall, there hasn’t been a much better cure for a bad trend than a game against the Mean Green. MTSU is 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 following an against the spread win and are 10-4-1 in their last 15 following a straight up win. I look for MTSU to walk away from this one with some gaudy stats, an easy win, and a cover.
Northwestern +3 Vs. Illinois (Saturday 11/22/08, 3:30 EST) 6 out of 10
it’s official, Mitch has officially checked out on the Fighting Illini this year, better late than never. While I have been preaching of the talent that Ron Zook has assembled in Champaign this year all season long, I have given the Zookster way too much credit and some how caught temporary amnesia regarding his major deficiency, the guy can’t coach. While Ron Zook is probably a very nice guy and is one of the best recruiters to ever work a living room, apparently he can’t cross the X’s too well and can’t come full circle on his O’s because it is another world of squandered talent for his squad. When I watch them I even have to wonder if they got confused because of their team colors and think thye are Syracuse or something, yes they are that bad.
Northwestern owns this series and is 6-2 against the number in the last 8 meetings. While I didn’t talk much about Northwestern in the previous paragraph, lets just say they are a lot smarter than Ron Zook will ever be. I think if we look clearly at stats and trends the numbers don’t add up here but I have more than just a gut feeling here, if there is a way to blow a crucial game that means something to his fans, Ron Zook usually finds a way to deliever the disappointment. I can go on all day about it and maybe we can talk about coaches in the forum as it is my favorite topic but I am just going to take Northwestern and sleep easy.
That’s all for today and I will be sending out the free newsletter later which will have at least 3 extra picks in it including 2 from Jordan, if I’m feeling it I may even post a few more picks later today, no promises. Feel free to leave questions and comments and be sure to check out the forum and help yourself to wealth of knowledge and insight on hand there.
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Comments
Hi Mitch, Very informative. Your picks have and continue to help me evaluate my own selections. The analysis you give each week enables me to make an informed decision on games that I play. Thanks!
Buffalo is a pretty good team when you think about it. They barely beat Temple on that Hail mary. ESPN briefly mentioned them for that play. I hope they go to a bowl game seeing that they haven’t gone to one ever. They were invited to one in 1958 but refused to go because their African-American players would not be allowed to participate.
Mitch, What in your opinion are the best three games Saturady for a three team parlay? I figured Washington was one but need two more, Thanks
UNLV and Boise but really no idea. I don’t do a lot of parlays. It’s hard enough to get around 60% right, 100% is pretty tough.
Mitch
I still don’t think Buffalo can cover, Mitch. I might just sit out tonight since nobody’s on my side for Bowling Green LOL. I like Northwestern pick. Middle Tenn laying 20.5 is too much, but again North Texas sucks and I probably won’t bet that game either.
Buffalo makes for another payday! On to the San Jose State game. Does anybody know the Florida line yet? I can’t find it anywhere
No line on the Citadel game
Ni ce no play for you Fantasy if you were able to lay off, Buffalo made it look easy…lol. A heart attack for players of both sides.
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