College Football Picks 2008 Week 14; Part 4: Mitch’s Free Predictions

With games Friday and Saturday, I guess I’ll have to just talk about the line moves on the video.

Jordan has posted his picks against the spread for the week and he has 9 that are posted out on the site, he’ll have another 2 in the free newsletter this week. While as usual we share a lot of the same picks, we differ on some games, and we have other games where the other person didn’t pick the game at all; prety much the way it’s been all along.

In any event I’m going to just get right to the picks.

Nebraska -18 Vs. Colorado (Friday 11/28/08, 3:30 EST) 5 out of 10

It’s tough to give this many point with the Corn Huskers but I am looked at this game inside and out and I just don’t see an angle that can get me away from it. Nebraska comes into this contest at 7-4 and winners of 4 of their last 5 while Colorado comes in at 5-6 but losers or 6 in their last 8. Colorado has been an easy team to figure out, injuries and a lack of depth have given way to the 108th ranked offense in the country and the 83rd ranked defense. Nebraska, while they have been winning games have been tough to figure out as well. Bo Pelini was brought in to run the show and he has a defensive background where he was the defensive coordinator for last year’s champions LSU. What I find odd is the Nebraska has the 92nd ranked defense and the 18th ranked offense in the country and basically has been winning by daring teams to out score them, I don’t think Colorado can even come close in Lincoln.

While Colorado is just 3-7 against the spread this season, all of the recent trends regarding this series favor the Buffaloes. Colorado has covered 5 of the last 6 in Nebraska and are 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between these 2. Colorado is just 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games and is 0-4 against the spread in their last 8 against a team with a winning home record. Nebraska enters the game with a 6-5 record against the spread and while they don’t have any encouraging new coming from the trend department they have covered their last two in a row an appear to be headed in the right direction. Thi is a ton of points and while I’m not overly confident, I think the Huskers get it done and cover.

UTEP +5 at East Carolina (Friday 11/28/08, 1 EST) 5 out of 10

While I can make what sometimes look to be outlandish picks, I would have a hard time picking against Trevor Vittatoe and the UTEP Miners in their season finale after the goodness they have spread here at The College Football Place. While TV has been our fantasy QB and king of the lock cover, he’s racked up some impressive stats in the meantime throwing for 31 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions and the good news for both the Miner fans and those who have ridden the Miners of late, TV is just a Sophomore and he’ll be back next year, though we can’t guarantee that we’ll see as much value on his golden arm. East Carolina started fast this season but haven’t finished like they started. While they are winning games they haven’t done much to win over the masses who have supported them.

ECU is just 3-8 against the spread this year and haven’t covered in their last 4, all of which have been conference games. East Carolina is just 1-7 against the spread when facing teams with a losing record and are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 following an against the spread loss. UTEP has covered their last 3 in a row and are 7-3 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record. UTEP also loves playing on natural grass where they have covered 5 of their last 6. I think Vittatoe has already made our players to watch list and as long as there is value on UTEP I’ll continue to back them.

Boston College -6 1/2 Vs. Maryland (Saturday 11/29/08, 3:30 EST) 5 out of 10

I have little doubt that Boston College wins this game against a Maryland team who has struggled on the road all season. While I think the Eagles should cover, I am not as convinced as if the line was around a field goal. BC QB Chris Crane left last week’s game and Boston College managed to come from behind on the road to snag the win, this week with a win they can grab their division in the ACC and be 1 game from a BCS bowl berth. No one really expected much from BC this year with Matt Ryan leaving for the NFL but BC has defied the experts and will be going bowling once again. No one expected much from Maryland either this year but Ralph Friedgen has done a fine job coaching and at 7-4 coming in, Maryland will be going to a bowl game win or lose.

Neither of these teams have a lot of positives in the trend department, just plenty of negatives. Boston College is just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 conference games and they are just 5-5 against the spread this season. Maryland is 4-5 overall on the season against the spread and are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games. While BC is on an emotional high, Maryland come in off of a very bad home loss in a game that was virtually a pick and they lost by 34 points to Florida State. I look for Boston College to be sky high and for the crowd to be fired up as the Eagles cover.

Baylor +22 at Texas Tech (Saturday 11/29/08, 3:30 EST) 5 out of 10

Here is the classic case of when I look at the game on the surface and then I look at the game throwing in a 22 point spread, I come up with a lot of different answers. Texas Tech has had a remarkable season and while the expectations were high in Lubbock this year, those expectations have been exceeded. While the Red Raiders lost last week in Norman, they are still looking at a New Years Day bowl game, an 11-1 regular season, and a Heisman Trophy for their QB; most would call that a very good year. For Baylor, while there won’t be any bowl games or Heismans this year, Bear fans received something that haven’t seen in quite some time, reason for hope. Head Coach Art Briles has done at great job in giving Baylor respectability and QB Robert Griffin has been one of the most exciting true Freshmen to come a log at a skill posion in quite some time; it’s tough not to root for these guys.

While Texas Tech has amassed that impressive record, they have gone 5-3-1 against the spread. Texas Tech is also 5-2-1 against the spread in their last 8 home games and has dominated this series covering 8 of the last 9 times these two have met. This is a different Baylor team that the Red Raiders will be facing as Baylor comes in at 7-3 against the spread and with a solid attitude. Baylor has covered in 4 of their last 5 road games, their last 4 straight conference games, and all of their last 4 overall. I think Texas Tech wins this game but I think Baylor and Griffin score enough to make it interesting for most of the game and get the cover when the final gun sounds.

Memphis -14 Vs. Tulane (Saturday 11/29/08, 3:30 EST) 6 out of 10

While I find it almost painful to lay two touchdowns with a team with a losing record I think it would probably be more painful to be on Tulane regardless of how many points I was getting. Tulane comes in at 2-9 and losers of 7 straight games. While the season started with a lot of promise of over achieving for Bob Toledo’s Green Wave, it certainly isn’t ending in the same manner. Tommy West’s Memphis squad isn’t having as good of a year as they have been accustomed to but with a win here they can make it back to .500, probably a little better than they were thinking with it being a rebuilding year.

As bad as Tulane has been they are 5-6 against the spread while Memphis is 4-5-1 against the number. Memphis has covered the last 4 times these 2 have met in Memphis as well as coving the last 4 times they have played overall. While Tulane’s overall record against the spread really isn’t too bad, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last 4 games and and are a miserable 1-5 on turf. Memphis is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 against a team with a losing record and are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 following a straight up loss. I look for Memphis to win this one easily at home and use it as another poitive to build on for next season.

That’s all for today. If you want even more free picks like these that won’t be discussed anywhere else on the site just subscribe to the free newsletter. It takes about 20 seconds and you only have to do it one time ever.

« Jordan Picks Week 14 College Football Against The Spread | Home | Video of the Day 11/28/08 »

• Tags

  1/24/09 2008 ACC against the spread analysis ats BCS betting lines Big 12 big east big ten bowl games college basketball college basketball odds College Basketball Picks college basketball predictions college football college football lines college football odds college football picks college football predictions college hoops favorite fiesta bowl free picks las vegas betting lines las vegas odds MAC mid america mountain west MWC ncaa ncaaf ncaa football oklahoma orange bowl pac-10 pointspread point spread rose bowl sec sugar bowl sun belt tigers underdog