College Football Picks 2008 Week 15; Part 2: Mitch’s Free Predictions

After 15 weeks and picking over 400 games this year, I made my first mistake of the season in yesterday’s post.

I somehow thought that the Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana-Lafayette game was on Tuesday, 12/2 when actually it is on Wednesday 12/3, and since I already made my pick, I’ll just continue on as I want to cover every game this week in a light an abbreviated schedule.

I am off to Las Vegas on Thursday for the Manny Pacquiao-Oscar De La Hoya fight but I will still be posting picks, checking the forums, and of course participating in the in game chats the best I can. While I will be picking every game this week, in order to get all of the picks you should sign up for the free newsletter as always I’ll be saving a few games for the in depth format I like to use there.

In any event, let’s move on to more of this week’s games.

Navy -11 at Army (Saturday 12/6/08, 12 EST) 6 out of 10

I am among those who remains glued to the TV for this annual battle. While the game is meaningless to many and hasn’t been competitive as of late, it still remains one of the showcase games in college football every year. When we talk rivalries in college football, I don’t think there are any more so than these 2. Navy has dominated this series of late winning the last 6 in a row but Army has shown signs of life this year that indicate times may be changing. While Army is just 3-8, those are 3 more wins than most thought they would have this season. Army has mode their improvement with a solid ground attack which is 9th in the country and a good defense which ranks in the top half in most categories. Unfortunately, despite the run game, Army’s overall offense ranks 115th and they still are going to have to improve if they are going to compete week to week. Navy is 7-4 overall coming in after a slow start and are number one in the country in rushing and 50th in overall offense. The Middies are balanced on both sides of the ball as the come in 51st overall in total defense.

Army has gone 6-4 against the spread this season while Navy is 5-5. The home team has gone 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings but the favorite is 7-1 against the spread in the last 8 and Navy has covered in 5 of the last 6 head to head contests. Army is 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games but are 0-6 in their last 6 home games when facing a team with a winning record. Navy is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 against a team with a losing home record and 12-5 in their last 17 following a bye week. While I think Army is greatly improved and has things headed in the right direction, I believe we will be hearing “Anchors Aweigh” played early and often in another Navy win and cover.

ACC Championship: Boston College Pick Over Virginia Tech at Tampa (Saturday 12/6/08, 1 EST) 5 out of 10

THis spread has already been moving all over the place and the early money seems to be coming in on Virginia Tech. While it’s been tough to go against Frank Beamer and Bud Foster, especially in a big game, it’s exactly what I am doing this week. Boston College comes in at 9-3 and Virginia Tech stands at 8-4 while not too many people picked this match up to decide the ACC. This match up itself wasn’t decided until last week as neither of these teams clinched their participation until then. This game sets up as a defensive battle as both of these teams get it done on that side of the ball. Boston College comes in with the 14th ranked scoring defense and Virginia Tech has the 16th ranked scoring defense. Neither team has much on offense and relies on their defense to set up their offense. While we hear this over and over, this game will be decided by whomever turns the ball over the least.

Boston College is 6-4 against the spread this year while Virginia Tech is 4-7 against the number. While the game is at a neutral site Virginia Tech is considered the home team and Boston College is 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 in this series as the road team.. BC is also 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 in this series overall. Virginia Tech is just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 overall and are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 played on natural grass. I honestly believe that whichever team can limit their mistakes will walk away the victor and just as a matter of momentum coming in I have to think Boston College emerges the winner.

USC -32 at UCLA (Saturday 12/6/08, 4:30 EST) 7 out of 10

USC coach Pete Carroll is so confident in his teams dominance over UCLA this weekend that he is willing to sacrifice 2 time outs just to be able to wear their home red uniforms as both teams will be wearing their colored jerseys in this one. The Trojans appear headed for the Rose bowl to take on Penn State while UCLA heads to an off season hunt for talent to restore the tradition that is UCLA football. This game is a mismatch on paper and may be even worse on the field. I have watched a few UCLA games recently and in a word they have been painful. While they just appear often over matched in most cases, they compound their problems by just playing sloppy football. UCLA is 108th in offense and 82nd in defense and that isn’t going to get it done against the Trojans who are 13th in the country in offense and number 1 in overall defense.

Both of these teams are 6-5 this year against the spread. Almost all of the trends here point to a UCLA cover. The home team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. UCLA is also 11-1 against the spread at home when playing a team with a winning record and are 14-4 overall when playing a team with a winning record. USC is 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 road games when playing teams with a losing record but are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 following a cover. Becuase I know that UCLA is just that bad this year and the Trojans are just that good, I am going to go against the trends and lay the boat load of points with the Trojans on the road.

Troy -11 Vs. Arkansas State (Saturday 12/6/08, 7 EST) 6 out of 10

We rode the Troy Trojans for a lot of the season this year until injuries finally set in and took over, Troy is looking to finish the season strong as they have appeared to recover from the injury bug. Arkansas State comes in at 6-5 and this game os actually a match up of two pretty decent teams. Arkansas State ranks 44th in the country in scoring offense and 43rd in the country in scoring defense. The Red Wolves specialize in running the ball as they are 17th in the country in rushing. Troy comes in 22nd on offense and 36th in defense and sporting a 7-4 record.

Arkansas State is 3-7 against the spread this year while Troy is 6-4 against the number. Arkansas State is 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 road games, 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games overall, and 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 conference games. Troy is 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 conference games, 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 against a team with a winning record, and 14-5 against the spread in theor last 19 games on grass. We have been on Troy just about all year long and it’s only fitting that we ride them one more time in week 15.

That’s all the picks for today but I will continue on analyzing and picking all of the games for week 15 in college football. If you want to get all of the free picks make sure you sign up for the free newsletter.

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