College Football Picks 2008 Week 4; Part 3: Mitch’s Free Predictions
Did someone forget to tell Kansas State that the objective is to actually win the game?
That was kind of a weird one, it looked like Kansas State was playing in a scrimmage or something trying different things yet none of them overly effective. We’ll be sure to watch our step in looking to them in the future especially since we’re still pretty well ahead but are also trying to get to that next level of cushion. There’s a lot to work with and I’ll probably be adding to this set of picks and releasing a few more tonight/tomorrow as well, there is just too many opportunities out there to pass up and I don’t like to smother the blog with too much information as I think I post enough games to give just about everyone something to chew on.
As always if you think I may be off the mark or missing something hit the forums and let us know sooner rather than later as anyone can say I told you so after the game is over. In addition to the 15 picks I’ve posted the past two days I’ll add these for now.
Tulane -6 vs. UL Monroe (Saturday 9/20/08, 2:00 EST) 1 Unit
No one can accuse either of these teams of ducking anyone as they’ve both played some fierce competition. For UL Monroe, they nearly upset Arkansas after opening the prior week at Auburn where they were shut out 34-0. While winless, Tulane was respectable both in their season opener at Alabama and at home against East Carolina. I will admit it, before the Alabama game I thought Tulane was a patsy but now after playing the Tide decently and nearly beating the upset kings, East Carolina it appears maybe Bob Toledo has the Green Wave headed in the right direction.
In their two games against D-1 competition the Warhawks were severely out gained by their two opponents while the Green Wave actually out gained Alabama pretty handily and were only out gained by East Carolina by 4 total yards. UL Monroe has some nice trends in their favor as they are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 overall and 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games. However, they are 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 vs. Conference USA teams. Tulane is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 and is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 non conference games. Tulane is perfect thus far this season against the number and I look for them to stay that way as well as finally getting into the win column.
Fresno State -7 at Toledo (Saturday 9/20/08, 8:15 EST) 1 Unit
Maybe they need to add to Pat Hill’s Fresno State team’s motto of anyone, anywhere, anytime; they can add: with no rest. Fresno continues to take on all comers after just a tough loss last week to a Wisconsin team which will contend for the Big Ten title this year. Fresno played the Badgers tough and out gained them but just ended up on the wrong side of a close score in a game they had their chance in. While Toledo won as an underdog last week it was Eastern Michigan and they didn’t fare as well against Arizona who would probably be a decided dog against the Bulldogs.
Toledo is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 at home and Fresno State is 5-1 in their last 6 on the road so something has to give. Speaking of giving, I’m going to give the points and take Fresno easily in this one.
Auburn +2 1/2 Vs. LSU (Saturday 9/20/08, 7:45 EST) 1 Unit
In a tight low scoring battle like this one I usually like the home team; when the home team is also getting points I like them even more. Many are probably scared of Auburn after they only mustered 3 points last week in their win against Mississippi State, I am still on them. While LSU enters the game undefeated, I never believe that playing cream puffs is any kind of prep after the first game of the season when your just getting your personnel some playing time.
While LSU is the defending National Champs they haven’t been any world beaters when it comes to the spread. LSU is just 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 12 overall and 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 conference games. Auburn is 7-2 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record and the home team is 5-2-1 against the number in the last 8 in this series. I could cop out and just say I take the Tigers but I’ll keep it real and just say I’m on Auburn.
Akron -10 at Army (Saturday 9/20/08, 12 EST) 2 Units
I think I am in the minority in thinking Akron’s game against Wisconsin wasn’t that close. Since then the Zips crushed Syracuse and then lost to Ball State. Army lost to Temple and then were handily defeated by 1-AA New Hampshire by 18 points going away. While neither of these teams are really good, Army is really bad. The Black Knights may be one of the worst teams in the country this year.
Both teams are coming off of a bye week and Akron is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 after a bye week; Army is 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 following a bye. The Zips are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 overall and Army is 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8. These just solidify our opinion more as Army is going to be hard pressed to cover against anyone this year, we’re on the Zips.
West Virginia -3 at Colorado (Thursday 9/18/08, 8:30 EST) 1 Unit
Once again we have two teams coming in off of a bye week. Last time we saw West Virginia they looked confused and beaten as they struggled from kickoff to final gun against the upset minded East Carolina Pirates. When we saw Colorado they were beating Colorado State in a game that was closer than it should have been for most of the game mainly because of CU’s inability to stop the run. If they had trouble stopping the run against CSU I can only think they’ll really have a struggle stopping the Mountaineer running game which will be looking to rebound.
While there isn’t a lot to work with as far as tends I’m just not willing to dismiss West Virginia just yet. With Pat White and Noel Devine there is just too much talent to toss this team to the side. The Mountaineers are also 5-1 against the spread following an against the spread loss and 13-6aginst the spread in their last 19 on the road. Colorado is just 2-7 against the spread following a straight up win. It’s just tough to think WVU loses two in a row against teams they should handle.
I do have a few more games in mind for this week but I want to stick to my format of 5 games for Thursday. I will talk about a few more games including the Friday Night match up next time.
Leave a Comment