College Football Picks 2008 Week 7; Part 1: Mitch’s Free Predictions
While we still have a winning record for the season picking against the number we’re still yet to have that break out week or series of break out weeks which have been our trademark the past several seasons.
A bad game, a tricky bounce bounce, nor just a really bad pick has never slowed us down in the past and it certainly isn’t going to now as we head deeper into conference play and we’re not even at the halfway point of the season. While when poking around the net I hear a lot of people talking about how tough the lines are this week this is actually the most comfortable I’ve felt in a while with my picks. Last week I shied away from a lot of games that I thought were fairly predictable as they almost looked too easy and I never like to take too many favorites, apparently last week was the week if you like the front runners. Once again we have a lot to cover this week so I’ll just get to the games and of course the picks.
LSU +4 at Florida (Saturday 10/11/08 8 EST) 2 Units
While originally I was impressed with the Gators I am getting less impressed by the week. While most that have soured on the Gators are so because of the loss to Ole Miss my problem comes more from just the overall lack of a running game and a lot of excuses which are getting tiring. Florida dressed up the scores against Miami and last week against Arkansas in games that were really pretty competitive until late. I do not look for LSU to lay down late in the swamp. LSU is a more balanced team and I think we can safely say that Les Miles team has played in some pretty tough places and on some pretty big stages and probably won’t be fazed by the night time atmosphere in Gainesville.
While I think if Florida wins it will be close enough that 4 should be plenty I think it may be worth a small money line play as well as the Tigers have as a good a chance to win this one as they do at the cover. These two teams play every year and the Gators have only averaged 270 yards against the tough LSU defense. I think LSU will be able to run fairly effectively on the Florida defense. The winning team against the spread in this series has been dominated by the road team and the underdog as the visitor is 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 5-1 in the last 6. These two teams represent the last two National Champions so both firmly understand the magnitude of this game. I just think there is a lot of value with LSU here and I’m on Les Miles’ Tigers.
Louisiana Lafayette -21 1/2 at North Texas State (Saturday 10/11/08, 7 EST) 1 Unit
In a season of inconsistency in an inconsistent sport we find consistency in the oddest of places which in this case is the North Texas State Mean Green. While I’m sure it isn’t the type of consistency the fans,Alumni, or Las Vegas has been looking for the rest of us have welcomed it with open arms. If you aren’t following me North Texas hasn’t covered this season and were stomped by FIU last week at home into a declining single digit point spread, not good. On the other side of this equation is a ULL squad which has been on cover auto-pilot since week 1 when they failed to cover in their loss to Southern Mississippi.
Going against the Ragin’ Cajuns is that they haven’t covered against North Texas in 8 years, and yes, they’ve played each season. When we extend the trends of each team outside of this season they simply read like an extension of the predominant trends encompassing each team this year. While I don’t like that ULL hasn’t covered in what would be two generations of 4 year players I like the fact that the Mean Green seem to have quit a few weeks ago even worse. I’ll take the Ragin Cajuns and enjoy saying their nickname for the rest of the week.
Arkansas +19 1/2 at Auburn (Saturday 10/11/08, 5 EST) 1 Unit
While last week it was the favorites turn to cover a lot of the big numbers out there I think for the most part we get back to normal and see some good chances for us to get in on a few dogs. I solidly believe that there is no way to have a winning season without picking plenty of dogs so I’ll stick to what has always worked for me in the past and look for the dogs with value. The Hogs seem to be one of those teams this week.
While Arkansas didn’t cover last week they were in the game most of the way with the Gators and I was kind of surprised when they didn’t cover. Auburn’s offense has been a train wreck and really this team doesn’t look to be the same since the home loss to LSU. In he LSU game and last week against Vandy the Tigers squandered big leads to lose the game outright. At this point I think the Auburn offense would be hard pressed to outscore anyone by 19 1/2. While Arkansas is 0-4 against the spread this year Auburn isn’t much better at 1-5. The underdog is 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 meetings and the road team has covered in 5 of the last 6 times these two have met. I look for Bobby Petrino’s Razorbacks to get their first cover of the season.
Utah -23 at Wyoming (Saturday 10/11/08, 2 EST) 1 Unit
I know Utah seems to play in spurts, turning it on and turning it off as they need to in order to win games; I also remember it cost us last week. What I also know is Wyoming is awful and has made a habit out of losing by 20+ points this year doing it 4 times already and primed to make it 5 times against the Utes this Saturday. This game doesn’t just look like a mismatch, it is one.
While trends usually are trends for a reason in some cases they are due for a major reversal and that’s what I think happens this weekend as the home team has covered the last 7 times these two have met. Why do I feel so confident that things are going to change? The more recent trend is that Wyoming is 0-7-1 against the spread in their last 8 home games. Besides having some of the worst uniforms in D-1 the Cowboys have a lousy 0-5 record against the spread to go with it. After last week’s close call at home against Oregon State, Utah should be all business this week.
Troy -3 1/2 at Florida Atlantic (Tuesday 10/7/08, 8 EST) 1 Unit
Florida Atlantic lost the battle last week when MTSU completed a Hail Mary with no time left on the clock to get a 1 point victory, however the Owls still won the war as they were getting 3 1/2 and got the cover. Troy, on the other hand, took their worst loss of the season against the ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys in their last game which was almost two weeks ago. Sure, one of Troy’s wins came against Alcorn State but Troy out gained them by 616 yards.
Troy comes in at 2-1 against the spread and has the edge in just about every offensive and defensive category when comparing them to FAU. Both of these teams have gigantic lists of positive trends but both have turned the ball over far too many times to have a successful season. This isn’t another case that if it wasn’t a Tuesday night game I wouldn’t be writing it up, I think Troy may be one of the better plays this week. For whatever reason Rusty Smith does not look like the same QB who led his team to the conference title last year and I think Troy really needed the rest and it should sit well with them.
Remember, if you want more free picks like these be sure to sign up for my free newsletter. It’s quick, easy, and free. While I will be posting more picks all week long as I usually do, the games in the news letter will not be covered in my normal blog. I’ll be back tomorrow with more picks.
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Comments
Hey Mitch, Thanks for the great picks! One game that jumps out to me is Ohio St. -19 against Purdue. I barely see Ohio St. putting 19 on the board let alone covering. I’ve watched a lot of both teams and Purdue seems to play better than expected and Ohio St. worse than expected. To me it looks like Ohio St. struggles with a good passing QB, which Purdue has in Painter. What’s your take? Thanks again, & can I get put on your newsletter list? Thanks
Hi Seth,
I’m still looking at that game but you are not the first person to ask or relay that comment to me so I guess that means I should take a look at it sooner rather than later. OSU is a better team with Beanie in there, no doubt about it and Purdue really let me down in the second half at South Bend. I was thinking it was a no play but I am going to take another look. I’ll post whatever I find out.
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Mitch
Hey Mitch,
I like Florida -4 over LSU. LSU has a new QB and barely beat auburn and miss st. I think ole miss (who best florida) is better than both of those teams. As for Florida, they lost last year (revenge), know their season is on the line, are at home, and love to cover spreads. good luck to you on the game. just my thoughts. most of the others I would stay away from…maybe arkansas looks interesting
Brian
Hey Brian,
Not a huge play for me but I like LSU with the points (i think it’s at 6 by now) and on the money line. Florida can’t run the ball and LSU has a ball hawking pass defense (that can really hit as well). Tebow and the Florida passing game has benefitted from just having better athletes and have gotten away with some outright lobs downfield, those will be disasterous as LSU isn’t going to have to crowd the line to stop Tebow or any Florida running. Just my 2 cents. Good luck as always.
Mitch
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