College Football Picks 2008 Week 7; Part 3: Mitch’s Free Predictions

I’ve decided to change my strength of play indicator as I think it will give a better look as to how I feel about a particular pick.

While in the end all we look at are wins and losses, there are certain games I feel better about than others. While I tried to use a 1-3 unit system for the first time this year it hasn’t worked out as I had planned as it was just confusing to the majority of my readers and even got confusing sometimes. While I could say next year we’ll try something different I think it makes more sense to change up right now.

What led me to change now was that something I felt as strongly as the Troy play on Tuesday night still only counts as 1 in the win/loss column, the same as a game I just pick because it’s the only game on TV on a particular night, at least we can look at exactly how strong or weak we felt the play was. I think this gives us more flexibility while at the same time giving everyone a closer idea as to how I feel about the overall pick. We’ll try it out and see how it goes.

Since we are changing this mid stream this week, I’ll re-post a recap in the newsletter this and every week of the rankings of the picks and I’ll also post if my it was a change in rank in the same game. While this may sound confusing it isn’t, it’s as simple as listing the games, winners and values and an asterisk (*) if there has been a change. If you haven’t signed up for the Newsletter it’s quick, easy, and free.

Now that I’ve thoroughly confused all of my loyal readers and any new comers I’ll get back to doing what I do, picking games and talking college football.

Wake Forest - 2 1/2 Vs. Clemson (Thursday 10/9/08, 7:30 EST) 5 out of 10

I have been avoiding picking or even looking at this game because I know Clemson has a great offensive backfield and I know Wake lost to Navy who is a running team. Looking at the team stats for both of these teams Clemson has a decided edge there as well. In the Coaching department its all Wake. While all of these statements are true it leaves out some major points which have led me to side with Wake. The Demon Deacons turned the ball over 6 times against Navy which would make it tough to beat anyone. When looking at the statistical disparity it has to be pointed out the Clemson has played two teams of the former 1-AA division of college football while Wake has only played Division 1 teams.

Clemson hasn’t covered all season and Wake is 2-2 against the number. To make matters worse Clemson has some of the worst trends of any team in the nation while Wake has some very decent trends to work with. The most important and most relevant trends are those which relate directly to this series and those are that the home team is 5-1-2 against the spread in the 8 meetings of these 2 teams and Wake is 4-1 against the spread in the series in the last 5. I think Clemson has a good chance if Wake turns the ball over 6 times again this week, I just think the chance of that happening is slim.

UAB +18 at Houston (Thursday 10/9/08, 8 EST) 4 out of 10

Houston has one of the most prolific offenses in the country and have scored just a ton of points so far this season. To make matters even better for the Cougars UAB’s defense is one of the worst in the country ranking north of 100th in every defensive category outside of rushing defense where they’re ranked 96th. On this match up alone you would think Houston is an easy pick but when you look at the Cougar defense and their 96th ranking in total yards allowed and 111th in rushing yards allowed it looks like a shoot out is in order and outscoring anyone by 18 may be a reach for even the vaunted Houston offense.

This line opened at 20 and has been dropping. Even with the prolific offense Houston is just 1-3 against the spread so far this season while UAB is 2-2-1. Neither of these teams have much of a positive trend to turn to but both have plenty of negatives to offset each other. This match up of two teams with losing records just doesn’t seem to be as unever as the spread and I’m going to take the points and my chances with the Blazers.

Northern Illinois -11 Vs. Miami (OH) (Saturday 10/11/08, 4 EST) 8 out of 10

While Miami (OH)’s defense isn’t bad and Northern Illinois offense isn’t much to get excited about they match up fairly evenly. On the other side of the ball we see the total mismatch of Miami’s inept offense and Northern Illinois’ very good defense. When I see this kind of match up it immediately start to think field position and the whole picture starts to make even more sense. Miami doesn’t give up a lot of yards but gives up a lot of points because it’s offense is so bad it puts it’s defense in a hole. This game sets up for some short fields for the Huskies to work with and the stats show that it’s right in their wheelhouse.

Miami comes in at 1-3 against the spread while Northern Illinois is a perfect 4-0 against the number. Miami’s cover at Michigan this year was their only cover in their last 8 games and they disappointingly haven’t covered in a conference game in their last 6 tries. Northern Illinois has covered not just their first 4 this year but their last 7 times in a row and have covered 4 times in a row in conference games. I look for the Huskies to be perfect in these categories after Saturday’s game as well.

Tulsa -25 at SMU (Saturday 10/11/08, 8 EST)  7 out of 10

By the time I send out the news letter this week this games rating could even be higher. As has been our trennd this week I am starting to move away from the trends and just look at match ups of offenses against defenses and then the matchups inside of those match ups. While Tulsa’s defense is pretty bad, especially against the pass, any differences in the SMU offense vs. Tulsa’s defense are easlity outweighed by the match ups when Tulsa has the ball Vs. SMU’s defense which may be one of the biggest unit vs. Unit matchups we see this season or any other season for quite some time. Tulsa is the number 1 offense in the country both in terms of scoring and yards gained and SMU’s defense in these categories rank 116th and 117th in the country respectively. What this equated to is that either this game has several hundred points scored or SMU isn’t going to be close becuase I would think the over/under for Tulsa punts prop bet may be around 1.

Tulsa is 4-0 against the spread this year while SMU is 1-2-2. If you’ve folowed the Golden Hurricane this year they’ve been breaking every trend in their oath and this week they’ll get a chance to get a few more out of their system as SMU has covered in the last 4 meetings (all as a dog) and Tulsa is just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 trips to SMU. I look for Tulsa to walk right over these trends and look beyond to what it will take to crack the BCS this year.

Air Force -10 1/2 at San Diego State (Saturday 10/11/08, 9:30 EST) 5 out of 10

This line opened at 8 1/2 and has been moving higher ever since. While Air Force disappointed their fans and their backers last week in their quest to reclaim the Commander in Chief’s Trophy from Navy I don’t think anyone is ready to write them off just yet. While I’m sure the Falcons are pretty hurting over the importance of the game tey lost last week this looks like a good spot for them to get well. The Aztecs come in at 1-4 straight up and 2-2 against the spread and they are fresh from a brtual beat down at the hands of a very good TCU team who was coming off a bad loss as well.

The trends for this one on a team basis are fairly even and the trends in the rivalry all favor San Diego State. The Aztecs have covered in 4 of the last 5 of times these teams have met and the underdog is 5-2 against the spread in their past 7 meetings; it is those trends which keep this game from a higher rating at this point as San Diego State’s good news ends there. Last week against TCU, San Diego State gave up around 350 yards on the ground, in fact the Aztecs are one of the nations worst teams against the run ranking 118th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game. What the SDSU defense will be looking at this year is the number 6 rushing offense in the country in the Falcons. The news doesn’t get much better on the other side of the ball as San Diego State’s offense sits north of 100th best in the country in most offensive categories while Air Force’s defense ranks in the mid 30’s. To make matters worse the one category that San Diego State shows some life is their passing game but this plays right into Air Force’s 21st ranked pass defense. I look for Air Force to control and move the ball on the ground and to wear out the San Diego State defense and walk out with the cover.

That’s all the picks for now but I’ll be back with a few more picks and of course our usual Friday “Games We’re Not Touching”. If you want more free picks like these just sign up for my free newsletter, it’s quick and easy and as always your email will not be sold or Spammed.

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