College Football Picks 2008 Week 7; Part 4: Mitch’s Free Predictions
Normally I reserve today for the games I’m not touching but I just felt like making more picks.
In case you haven’t noticed it’s that time in the season where I have enough current data to really crunch the numbers and make my picks as opposed to relying on trends and limited data. I think we saw this really work to our advantage in both the Clemson-Wake Forest game and the Troy-FAU game where many of the cappers and bettors were on the other side, especially with all of that late action on Clemson last night. In less than a few hours Clemson went from a 2 1/2 point underdog to a two point favorite but we weren’t even close to being sicked in to that disaster. In any event I have said all along that my second half of the season is always my strongest half and the current data is the main reason why. So far, so good.
If you haven’t seen me post a pick and it isn’t in my newsletter late tonight I’m either not touching it or it flew past my radar so feel free to ask in the mean time. The forum is a great spot for this and with all of the people on this site now and really the quality of handicappers we could probably have a great forum in no time.
In the FREE newsletter this week I’ll be adding some actual site news and start to talk about some contests that will be happening, with prizes. I have sponsors (who I haven’t given a lot of love to) so we can either play for cool stuff or my favorite prize, cash. Maybe we’ll do both. You will need to be a subscriber to be eligible and since it’s free and quick (you don’t see any complaints in the comments or forum) there’s really no reason not to. It will be free for subscribers to enter any contest, it should be a lot of fun.
Back to this week, I’m at 2-1 so far after the blowing of the spread by UAB who just got plain tuckered out in the track meet at Houston. For those who watched my video yesterday it was almost like I scripted the Wake-Clemson game myself as it was exactly how we called it but included some squandered chances by Wake or else it would have been an even easier win for us. Let’s get on to what the rest of the weekend has in store.
Memphis +6 1/2 Vs. Louisville (10/10/08, 8 EST) 3 out of 10
Here’s another one of those games I’m only picking because it’s the only game in town on Friday night. This is where our new rating system comes into play and while the ratings won’t make a difference in the win loss column we’ll be able to look at w/l percentages within each rating. Back to the game, this one looks pretty even and when it’s even we go with the team getting the points especially if it’s a night game. Memphis comes in having won 3 in a row straight up and Louisville comes in after a bye week following a home loss to Connecticut. Louisville has been a model of inconsistency the past few years.
The trends in this game all favor a Memphis cover as the Tigers are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 meetings, the underdog is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings, and the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 meetings. While Louisville is actually stringer running the football, QB Hunter Cantwell was injured last game and while he’s scheduled to start there are still some reported issues. THis one looks like it should be a pick so we’ll gladly take the points with Memphis.
West Virgina -23 1/2 Vs. Syracuse (Saturday 10/10/08) 5 out of 10
This has been a disappointing year for both of these teams. For Syracuse, they hoped to improve from the past few years where they’ve been somewhat of a bottom dweller in the world of college football. For WVU, they started the season with hopes of a championship run; those hopes were quickly eliminated with back to back bad losses to East Carolina and Colorado. Since those losses the Mountaineers have bounced back with back to back wins and should easily make it three in a row this week against Syracuse. If it wasn’t for their victory over 1-AA Northeastern, Syracuse would be winless.
West Virginia hasn’t looked “right” this season and whether that’s the departure of Rich Rodriguez or just other teams figuring them out this sets up for a good chance for them to get well in front of the home folk. While this looks like a statistical mismatch across the board which is how they got to this spread in the first place, the WVU run offense against a Syracuse run defense looks to be where the Mountaineers will be able to move the ball at will With Noel Devine and a dinged up QB in Pat White. West Virginia has covered 6 of the last 7 times these teams have met and the favorite has covered in 9 of the last 13; I look for these trends to continue with a West Virginia cover.
Cincinnati -7 Vs. Rutgers (Saturday 10/10/08, 12 EST) 5 out of 10
At this point I have seen at least 150 games of college football this season. I’ve seen the good, the bad, the disappointing, the lucky , the unlucky, etc. In all of the football I have watched this year I am hard pressed to find to many that rival the level of poor play as that by Rutgers at home against North Carolina and then the following week against Navy. In both of those games Rutgers looked like less than a shell of the team they’ve been the past few seasons and while we expected a drop off with the departure of Ray Rice, we didn’t expect the bottom to fall out. The reality of the situation is that Rutgers only victory of the year came against 1-AA Morgan State.
Cincinnati has really been going through QB’s this year but coach Brian Kelly keeps a bunch on hand. Kelly’s offense isn’t the simplest so there have been times where his inexperienced QB’s have struggled. The statistical match ups for the most part are surprisingly even but the one glaring deficiency is Rutgers offense is non existent. I look for Cincinnati’s defense to set up their offense with good field position and really control the ball game. With a dropping spread this one possibly falls below a touchdown so it may be one to kep our eye on but as it stands we’re on Cincinnati.
Baylor -4 Vs. Iowa State (Saturday 10/11/08, 7 EST) 4 out of 10
I received a few emails regarding this game so I thought I would give it a shot. I haven’t been too quiet about everything good that I see going on at Baylor, Art Briles has his team actually thinking they should win games and Robert Griffin has been on of the real impact freshmen this season. Iowa State has played just well enough to lose and while I’ve seen most of their games this season I have also seen why they lose, it’s a case a very poor run defense at key times. Both of these teams come off of tough spots where they probably wish they had a bye this week. Baylor took a physical pounding against Oklahoma and Iowa State blew a 20 point half time lead in their upset bid of a ranked Kansas team.
The home team has covered 5 of the last 6 times these two have met and I look for more of the same to happen this week. I think when a decent or up and coming team plays a powerhouse like the number 1 ranked team in the country, we need to severely discount those stats when evaluating the big picture. I also know that Iowa State’s 3-1 mark against the spread was inflated by the intentional safety Iowa took a few weeks ago. I look for Art Briles and his Bears to get another victory in their building campaign.
BYU -23 Vs. New Mexico (Saturday 10/11/08, 6 EST) 6 out of 10
I loearned something new about BYU last week. No, not that they will occaisionally call the dogs off and blow a cover that looked sealed (though I learned that as well), these guys actually do have their own TV network. While many enjoy mocking the NBC-ND relationship I wonder what someone trying to blaze their path to broadcasting fame will sacrifice to not piss off the BYU network? I guess that’s a discussion for another day, I just thought they were on the Mountain Network, not the only thing I was wrong about last week.
Looking at the statistical match up, Max Hall may really light up the scoreboard enough to get some serious Heisman consideration. Hall’s passing game ranks 7th in yards and 10th in scoring. On the other side of the ball I just don’t think that New Mexico’s 100th ranked pass defense and 77th ranked scoring defense are going to improve their rankings this week. Let’s also not forget that BYU is the 8th ranked scoring defense and solidly in the top 1/3 in every defensive statistical category. New Mexico had a similar match up 3 weeks ago against a Tulsa team who are a good team but a team most feel is maybe a notch below the Cougars and the result was a blow out. I look for another blowout by BYU in this one.
I’ll be back tomorrow talking about the huge line moves and of course all of the big games. I feel more confident in my selections this week than any week so far and that’s the way it’s supposed to work. There’s a lot going on with the site and it’s exciting and should be exciting for all of you as you are what makes it, as I say right at the top, this site is for the fans of the game.
I’ll be in the forums and answering your comments as I can so feel free to fire away.
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Comments
Mitch,
I like new mexico state. in the last 10 meetings, BYU has won by 25 or less every time. I’m sure BYU wins, but at least 7 or 8 times out of 10 BYU doesn’t cover this type of line. 23 points is too many for most conference games.
Brian
I saw the same stat (it’s New Mexico, they played State last week) but I’m past the point in the season where I’m reliant on trends and rely more on matchups and current data. I’m not saying I ingnore the trends, I just put this years numbers ahead of them. Last week BYU was a wreck for me, nothing worse than a team covering a big number deciding to pack it in and let the JV get scored on a few times to blow a cover, that’s the biggest problem with a big number, especially on the road like they were. Do me a favor, take a look at Robbie Allen’s site (it’s still a work in progress so he isn’t charging but i’m sure it will be big bucks once it’s done) and see what you think when you look at both of these teams statistically and maybe you’ll see why I think this year and this game is different. He’s still working on things there so if you have suggestions for him shoot him an email and tell him I sent you. You’re going to like this one and Robbie is a great guy and all of the pro and college scouts use his hoops stuff which is much more robust than his current cfb stuff. it’s http://statsheet.com let me know what you think.
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