Mitch Picks the BCS Championship Game 1/8/09: Oklahoma vs. Florida
By Mitch •
January 7th, 2009
The BCS Championship Game Dolphin Stadium Miami, Fl
Florida (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1)
Thursday January 8, 2009 8 EST The Line: Oklahoma +5
Overview:
There isn’t a lot I can write about this match up that you probably haven’t read somewhere else. We have two head coaches who each have a National title already under their belt. We have two Heisman winning QB’s. We have the Big 12 against the SEC. We have two traditional powerhouses loaded with athletes. We don’t have two teams who each ran the table and we don’t have tow teams who emerged from a playoff, we do have problems that aren’t going away by the time the final gun sounds in this one.
The Florida Gators won the National Title two years ago and this team is arguably better on both sides of the ball. The heart and soul is QB Tim Tebow who is simply the poster child for college football. Florida has a host of weapons and athlets on both sides of the ball but have double digit numbers who spent the majority of the break and practice time for the bowl in the whirlpool as opposed to going through reps at game speed, we won’t know until the actual game starts to see what if any effect this has on both sides of the ball.
The Oklahoma Sooners do not have a pleasant bowl history of late. The Sooners have had countless chances to prove themselves and every year after New Years the Oklahoma team responds by falling flat on their faces. The Sooners are led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Sam Bradford and the offense has been high octane and high scoring. Oklahoma’s biggest problems have happened on the defensive side of the ball where they have had injuries at linebacker most of the year. The linebackers will have to play big if the Sooners are going to win this game.
Some Stats:
Florida:
Offensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 442.4 |
| (17th/1st) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 212.6 |
| (62nd/5th) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 229.8 |
| (11th/1st) |
|
Defensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 279.3 |
| (7th/3rd) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 174.0 |
| (15th/3rd) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 105.3 |
| (15th/4th) |
|
* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively
Oklahoma:
Offensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 562.1 |
| (3rd/1st) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 356.5 |
| (3rd/2nd) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 205.5 |
| (18th/2nd) |
|
Defensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 359.1 |
| (62nd/3rd) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 253.1 |
| (100th/5th) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 106.0 |
| (16th/2nd) |
|
* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively
These numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Oklahoma has a slight edge on the Florida offense, the Florida defense has a significant edge over the Sooner defense. It’s just worth noting that these team AVERAGE nealry a 100 points a game combined, WOW.
The Trends:
ATS Trends
| Florida |
- Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Gators are 15-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
- Gators are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
- Gators are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Gators are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite.
|
| Oklahoma |
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Sooners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
- Sooners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Sooners are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
- Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
- Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC.
|
The Pick:
I cam look up and down at so many angles: the conferences performances, the defensive teams, etc., I have my own angle for this one, one that has served me well this season. Early this morning I posted a poll in the forum and the poll picked the Gators to cover, I’m going to ride the readerspicks withthem and I’m on the Gators.
MITCH’S PICK: FLORIDA -5
« A MESSAGE FROM MITCH 1/7/09 | Home | Video of the Day 1/8/09 »
Comments
Long live the poll. Swear that thing was running at 80% this year after we started it. A little sad that the season ends here, but there is so much going on that I know ill be at the site everyday even after the new site starts for cbb. Look forward to the chat as Ill take the Sooners against the world.
Without Ryan Reynolds Oklahoma has no hope. Oklahoma shut down McCoy until he got hurt mid 2nd quarter, after that he ran wild. The SEC defenses couldn’t stop Tebow, I don’t see a big-12 defense doing it. If Spikes, Haden, and Jenkins have a solid game this one goes to the gators.
mstrawser9…
After Reynolds was injured Colt McCoy did not run wild on the defense. In fact, McCoy finished with 31 yards on 13 carries. Not exactly running wild on anyone. Get the facts straight before posting.
I watched the game OU. If you couldn’t see the difference after he left, you weren’t watching the same game. He ran for a few first downs, and his passing game opened up. It was night and day for the Oklahoma defense. Oklahoma has yet to find a MLB replacement for him, going through a few different players. It really is the most important position on the field against Tebow.
the public is on Florida, I rode Florida, and Okie to all season to some pretty nice paydays. I like Okie in this one fellas, just to counter some of the points being made around the www, Sam Bradford is not the same QB’S that won the Heisman while at Okie and then laid an egg in the Championship Game. Bradford is the real deal. Okie V Florida offense similar numbers, Okie V Florida defense, advantage Florida as far as numbers go. Let’s face it though, Big 12 high octane offenses, V SEC middle of the pack offenses. I’m not saying Okie wins outright, but what I’m saying is this one is tight to the very end, with the winner being on the end of a FG or less. That’s what the sharps put out to begin with 3 pts, now the public has inflated the line to 5. IMHO
That line is moving too quickly upwards..too many people are jumping on Florida and the bookies are loving it.
I decided to tease the line and the overunder and got Oklahoma +12 and under 75.5.
The line started at 3 and i’ve gained 9 points and the over under started at 67 and i’ve gained 8.5.
I see Florida winning 38 to 31 and it will be decided late in the fourth quarter. IMHO
You know the Bowls in general have been doggie and while I was on the dogs all season and took at lest 50% dogs, I didn’t carry it into the Bowls and it cost me, you may be on to something.
Mike - I understand your angle but what does not jive is that Vegas is still trying to get people off of FL - which indicates to me that the Pros still think FL is going to roll. If the Pros thought OK was going to come through tonight - Vegas would let the line sit and smile as they count their $.
Right on the money! Bob Stoops chokes again!
Leave a Comment