Mitch Picks The Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas 1/5/09
By Mitch •
January 4th, 2009
The Fiesta Bowl University of Phoenix Stadium Glendale, AZ
Ohio State (10-2) vs. Texas (11-1)
January 5, 2009 8 EST The Line: Texas -8
Overview:
Two teams who are no stranger to big games and BCS Bowl games meet for another one in this clash in the desert. For both of these teams being in this game has to be a little bit of a let down as Senior laden Ohio State was built to win this year and Texas beat one of the participants in the National Tile game, Oklahoma, head to head and finished with an identical record yet plays for nothing but pride.
Ohio State started the year with big expectations coming off of two straight unsuccessful trips to the BCS Title Game. The dream ended early for the Buckeyes as on September 13th, USC handed them a decisive loss. When the Buckeyes lost to Penn State later in the year, most thought they wouldn’t even go to a BCS game. Many argue they shouldn’t be here. One thing is for certain, as is the case for just about all Buckeye teams, they are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. While things haven’t gone according to plan, Ohio State will be geared up to produce a different result than their past few trips to BCS games.
Texas did just about everything right this year to play in the National Championship game. Unfortunately, when were dealing with a system as imperfect as the BCS, “just about” is rarely enough as when teams leave things up to the polls and computers, they seem to rarely get it right. The Longhorns lost only once this year, and were strong in just about all aspects. While Texas QB Colt McCoy didn’t win the Heisman, he went through extended periods this year where he didn’t have an incomplete pass. Texas is loaded and while this may not be where they want to be and this may not be where they deserve to be, we haven’t heard one complaint or excuse from the Longhorns.
Some Stats:
Ohio State:
Offensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 339.7 |
| (79th/9th) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 148.1 |
| (105th/10th) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 191.6 |
| (26th/3rd) |
|
Defensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 279.3 |
| (7th/1st) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 164.3 |
| (7th/1st) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 114.9 |
| (19th/3rd) |
|
* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively
Texas:
Offensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 476.4 |
| (9th/5th) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 299.5 |
| (10th/5th) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 176.9 |
| (35th/4th) |
|
Defensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 339.9 |
| (49th/1st) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 266.3 |
| (109th/8th) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 73.6 |
| (2nd/1st) |
|
* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively
While most seem to associate the Big 12 teams with a lack of defense, Texas doesn’t fit that mold. The battle in this one appears to be the Ohio State running game against the Texas D and the Ohio State D against the Texas offense. On the other side of the ball, do Ohio State’s nubers play out on the field and does their defense stop or at least slow down the Texas offense?
The Trends:
ATS Trends
| Ohio State |
- Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.
- Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games on grass.
- Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
- Buckeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
|
| Texas |
- Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
- Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Longhorns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
- Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
- Longhorns are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
- Longhorns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
- Longhorns are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Longhorns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Bowl games as a favorite.
- Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
- Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
|
The Pick:
These two teams have played twice fairly recently and they produced entertaining games, I’m not so sure we see the same thing this time out. Ohip State faced only one team with the atlethicism of Texas this year and they were blown out by the USC Trojans. If Texas gets ahead by more than 10 points, this could get ugly as I don’t see Ohio State having a style of offense that fits a comeback. Neither of these conferences have had a lot of success in the bowl season so they’ll be playig that angle as well. I like Texas in this one as I think the Longhorns just have too much and the decided advantage the Buckeyes usually have in neutal site games with the crowd won’t be the case this time out.
MITCH’S PICK: TEXAS -8
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Comments
91 percent of america likes Texas according to espn.com, in most scenarios that would scare me, but In this event it make me proud to hate OSU.
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