Mitch Picks The GMAC Bowl: Ball State vs. Tulsa
By Mitch •
January 5th, 2009
The GMAC Bowl Ladd-Peebles Stadium Mobile, Al
Ball State (12-1) vs. Tulsa (10-3)
January 6, 2009 8 EST The Line: Tulsa -3
Overview:
For those looking for an offensive show, they may have come to the right place. These are two teams who have put up points all year long and look to finish out the season with more of the same and a bowl victory. While I’m not sure this is where either of these teams truly wanted to be, as they were both double digit favorites in their losses in their conference championship games, they are in a nice bowl at least as far as match ups go.
Ball State saw their dream of an undefeated season go down the tubes with three lost fumbles that went the distance for six the other way in the MAC Championship game against Buffalo. While the Cardinals weren’t in BCS consideration as their strength of schedule wasn’t considered tough enough, running the table is no small feat when playing an entire D-1 schedule. While Ball State had been tested for a half here and there over the course of the season, QB Nate Davis was always able to rally the team to victory which in the end was by a comfortable margin. It is important to note that Ball State Head Coach Brady Hoke left before this game to take the same position at San Diego State and Stan Parrish will take over for this game.
Tulsa started the season looking like no one was going to beat them. It was an air show every weekend with QB David Johnson putting up gigantic numbers and the offense putting up a lot of points week after week. The Golden Hurricane were somewhat exposed by Arkansas who looked like they were twice the size of the Tulsa players when they lined up on the field. While Tulsa’s offense never slowed down, it was their defense that let them down in their 3 losses this season.
Some Stats:
Ball State:
Offensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 459.4 |
| (11th/1st) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 266.7 |
| (22nd/4th) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 192.7 |
| (24th/2nd) |
|
Defensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 347.9 |
| (54th/3rd) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 206.2 |
| (56th/6th) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 141.8 |
| (65th/4th) |
|
* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively
Tulsa:
Offensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 565.1 |
| (1st/1st) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 310.2 |
| (7th/3rd) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 254.8 |
| (7th/1st) |
|
Defensive Averages:
|
|
| Overall Yds |
| 391.2 |
| (84th/5th) |
|
| Passing Yds |
| 257.7 |
| (104th/9th) |
|
| Rushing Yds |
| 133.5 |
| (44th/2nd) |
|
* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively
There’s a reason this game is seen as a game between two great offenses, the numbers add up. Tulsa is particularly poor in pass defense, is this a product of a deficiency or a product of them being in a shootout nearly ever weekend? While most consider Ball State a weak defensive team as well, in just about every game I have seen the defense has stiffened in the second half and in their only loss this season the offense gave up 21 of the 42 points Buffalo scored with turnovers that were ran back for TD’s.
The Trends:
ATS Trends
| Ball State |
- Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
- Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
- Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
- Cardinals are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
- Cardinals are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
|
| Tulsa |
- Golden Hurricane are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.
- Golden Hurricane are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Golden Hurricane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Golden Hurricane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Golden Hurricane are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
|
The Pick:
While I know the loss of Brady Hoke can’t help Ball State, I haven’t been impressed with Tulsa since the loss to Arkansas. While early in the season Tulsa blew everyone out, aside from Tulane, every game from Arkansas on was a struggle or an outright loss. I picked Ball State to win and cover aginst Buffalo in the MAC Championship and they certainly had their chances though the score appears like it was a lopsided game. I like Ball State to cover in this one and really think they win this outright as they exploit the very weak Tulsa defense.
MITCH’S PICK: BALL STATE +3
« Jordan Picks The GMAC Bowl: Tulsa vs. Ball State | Home | Video of the Day 1/6/09 »
Comments
Hey Mitch,
Just want to thank you for all that you do!
Do you think that the possible flooding will effect one team more than the other (maybe help BS having Lewis) and what do you think about the o/u of 73?
I’d say it’s going under. The total includes more than 10 tds. That’s not possible anymore with Tulsa offense being read by now. I am not sure which side is the right one but under seems safer. However, one thing to note is that Ball St starts out -3, now they are +3. The line is going the opposite direction by 6 points. Anything wrong lately with Ball State that makes them have another 6 points?
…well, I loved tulsa at pick.
Last chance for a MAC victory…I don’t think it will happen though!
Their coach left, that’s really about it, my guess is the Buffalo-Ball State game got a lot more tv viewership than Tulsa-ECU or TUlsa-Houston
Leave a Comment